This suggests 8.6 million shipments in Nintendo’s 2HFY2026 from Oct 1 to March 31, following 10.4 million in 1HFY2026.
However, given the “attractive holiday season pipeline”, Morningstar Research director Kazunori Ito believes this figure is “too conservative”.
Instead, Ito is sticking to his forecast of 22 million Switch 2 consoles to be shipped in FY2026.
Nintendo has sold 10.36 million units of the Switch 2 since its launch on June 5. First announced in January, the console boasts a larger display, more internal storage and upgraded graphics compared to the original Switch console, which was released in March 2017.
See also: Nintendo aims to make 25 million Switch 2 units by March
“We are encouraged that the launch of the Switch 2 console and accompanying game releases are stimulating users' purchasing activities more than we had anticipated,” writes Ito in a Nov 5 note. “We therefore raised our game shipments forecast (for both Switch and Switch 2) for [FY2026] to 205 million from 165 million.”
Ito believes Nintendo is gearing up for the year-end shopping season. “We are not concerned about Switch 2 console shipments being lower than expected, as we believe Nintendo has controlled shipments to ensure sufficient stock for the upcoming holiday season. We believe Nintendo's 16% increase in inventory over the past three months supports our view.”
Ito has a three-star rating on Nintendo against Morningstar’s five-tier scale. In a Nov 5 report, Ito raises his fair value estimate on the company to JPY14,000 ($118.66) from JPY13,000 previously, citing “improved user engagement” during the quarter.
See also: Nintendo to release Switch 2 on June 5, potentially lifting sales for game-makers, retailers
Shares in Nintendo, a constituent of Japan’s benchmark index TOPIX Core 30, have been on a tear since the Switch 2 was announced at the start of the year. Nintendo shares hit an all-time high of JPY14,795 in August, and the counter is up some 51% year to date.
“We believe Nintendo's shares are currently fairly valued,” says Ito. “As the market has already confirmed three months ago that the Switch 2 console had achieved a rocket start after its June launch, we believe its near-term success is already mostly priced in.”
Nintendo started its video game console business in 1983 by launching the NES, and started its portable console business in 1989 by launching the Game Boy. Since then, the firm has focused on expanding the gaming population via its original console systems; the Wii and Nintendo DS are its most popular hardware.
Nintendo not only makes game consoles, but also owns world-renowned intellectual properties (IPs) such as Super Mario, Pokemon and Zelda, which have been a source of cash flow for 40 years.
Shares in Nintendo closed JPY805 higher, or 6.2% up, at JPY13,750 on Nov 5.
