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ISDN's 1HFY2025 hurt by forex but recovery prospects remain, says CGSI's Tng

The Edge Singapore
The Edge Singapore  • 3 min read
ISDN's 1HFY2025 hurt by forex but recovery prospects remain, says CGSI's Tng
William Tng of CGS International has kept his "add" call on ISDN and 44 cents target price
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ISDN Holdings' 1HFY2025 was hurt by forex losses, below the expectations of William Tng of CGS International. Nonetheless, with prospects of recovery seen in its underlying businesses, plus small caps as a whole enjoying higher valuations from the market boosting measures, Tng kept his "add" call and 44 cents target price on ISDN Holdings.

For the half year ended June, ISDN reported revenue of $212.9 million, up 22% y-o-y, led by both recovering industrial activity in China and Asean. If not for unfavourable forex, revenue would have gained by 27%.

The company's hydropower business in Indonesia generated higher revenue too of $32.5 million from just $5 million in the year earlier 1HFY2024.

In the period, ISDN incurred $5 million of unrealised, non-cash foreign exchange revaluation losses in 1H25 due to the weaker US dollar.

The company, according to Tng, is "cautious on the strength of the cyclical recovery in China but will continue to grow its capabilities, reach, and addressable markets to create long-term growth".

"ISDN believes its core industrial automation business should continue to grow in China and throughout Asia. The group is encouraged by the early progress in Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan, adding to its core geographies in China, Singapore and Vietnam," says Tng.

See also: OCBC's Lim cuts fair value for SingPost to 49.5 cents

With another two plants to be completed in the coming FY2026, the company's ISDN’s mini-hydropower business should continue to deliver recurring profits and revenue.

Following the most recent 1HFY2025 results, Tng has reduced his FY2025 earnings forecast by 50.5% to take into account the unrealised foreign exchange loss in 1HFY2025.

For the coming FY2026 and FY2027, Tng expects earnings to recover, but, for now he has similarly trimmed his projections by 12.5-20.6% to take into account a bigger proportion of lower margin earnings from hydro-power.

See also: CGSI's Ong raises target price for BRC Asia to $4.30 on healthy industry fundamentals

Nonetheless, Tng has kept his 44 cents price target, which is based on 13.5x P/E, which is the 10-year FY2016 to FY205 average, as the underlying business is experiencing some recovery, and small caps’ valuations have risen from the market boosting measures.

For him, re-rating catalysts include higher-than-expected net profit contribution from its hydropower business segment, faster pace of economic growth in China as it stimulates its economy, and a stronger recovery of the semiconductor sector.

On the other hand, downside risks include weak customer demand if the global economy continues to slow, and greater possibility of bad debts as economic conditions worsen.

ISDN shares closed at 39 cents on Aug 22, unchanged for the day but up 24.19% year to date.

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