While gold buyers are presumably getting weighed down by all the gold they are purchasing, their mood is buoyed by the gravity-defying price of gold which is lifting them to greater heights of wealth.
The spike in gold prices is also loading the pockets of the shareholders of goldminers. For instance, shares in Catalist-listed CNMC Goldmine Holdings have more than quadrupled since 1Q 2025, with dividends increasing even more percentage wise.
In the face of overwhelming tailwinds, PhillipCapital is raising CNMC Goldmine’s target price to $1.47 per share. In his research note dated Jan 18, analyst Hashim Osman increased the TP by 13 cents, or 9.7%, from his colleague Paul Chew’s TP in October 2025. The “buy” call is maintained.
Among the reasons for Hashim’s optimism includes the completion of the carbon-in-leach (CIL) facility expansion of CNMC’s main gold production plant located at its Sokor gold mine in Kelantan, Malaysia. With the enhanced capabilities, CNMC has increased production by 60% from 500 tonnes to 800 tonnes.
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According to Hashim, with the expanded configuration that harnesses a dual circuit system, the mine is also able to continue processing without interruption during maintenance or unexpected downtime. He also adds that recent production has been boosted by better gold recovery rates from the expanded CIL processing facility.
Despite the improvements and CNMC using grade blending to smooth output variability, Hashim still expresses some minor caution in valuing CNMC given the “inherent” volatility of ore grades. Grade blending is the process of mixing different grades of gold-bearing ores from various parts of a mine to create a consistent, optimal feed for the processing plant. This is practiced to maintain consistency in production by smoothing out the natural variability in ore deposits and thereby maximising recovery rates and reducing costs.
Another possible catalyst for CNMC is the development of an underground mining facility at the Sokor gold mine, which is expected to be completed in 1H 2026 (revised from 2025). Although Hashim notes that the completion may be further delayed to 2H 2026 and that underground mining is more expensive, these can be negated by higher quality gold ore from underground deposits.
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The analyst also believes that there is room for the company to increase its dividends. With stronger earnings and peak in capex, the dividend payout ratio could exceed the 30% target level if contingent on “sustained cash flow generation and capex requirements”.
Pointing out that dividend per share has increased seven times from 0.2 cents in FY2022 to 1.4 cents in FY2024, Hashim suggests that the improved DPS signals CNMC’s stronger operational performance and cash flow generation.
Adding that 1H 2025 DPS of 1.5 cents have already exceeded FY 2024’s full-year payout, Hashim writes, “With sufficient cash to fund near-term capex without the need for external financing, we see dividend enhancement as a realistic scenario.”
At TP of $1.47, PhillipCapital notes that its valuation implies a FY2025 estimated P/E of 11.2 times, which remains “conservative”, as no terminal value has been factored in, given that the mining permit is valid until 2034.
As at 2:25 pm on Jan 19, CNMC shares are flat at $1.16.
