Higher provisions will likely impact net profit and lead to lower dividends for banks that rely on dividend payout ratios. “A larger risk for stock prices is banks and regulators re-thinking capital management plans,” JP Morgan indicates.
On the other hand, some markets may see an inflow of wealth, as well as higher demand for hard assets. Singapore and Hong Kong are likely to benefit from better net new money growth, as some of the high net worth individual (HNWI) assets move to lower-risk regions. The JP Morgan’s economics team’s analysis suggests that Japan, China and India's economies have higher buffers, and hence banks there should be in a better position to navigate growth and asset quality risks.
Within Apac, Singapore, being the only AAA-rated country by all three rating agencies in Asia and the second AAA-rated country in Apac (Australia being the other), has, unsurprisingly, the cleanest sovereign balance sheet. Its Net International Investment Position (NIIP) to GDP is 148%, with current account and fisal surpluses, and foreign exchange reserves at 67% of GDP. The local banks’ common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratios are around 200 basis points above the comfort zone of 13%.
Nonetheless, JP Morgays says “Singapore as a financial centre leads to high short-term cross-border credit at 65% of FX reserves and total cross-border credit at 69% of GDP, elevated vs the region. Further, the risks around oil and gas, hospitality and tourism, as well as derivatives exposures at banks’ customers can lead to unanticipated outcomes over the next few quarters. In such a scenario, a degree of weakness cannot be ruled out.”
See also: DBS downgrades Singtel to ‘hold’ with Bharti’s share price easing
The risk is that local banks are less generous on the capital management front. For the time being, DBS remains JP Morgan’s top pick because of its capital management, strong wealth management business, and despite the IT outage experienced on March 19. “UOB stays our underweight, with OCBC neutral on limited capital management,” JP Morgan adds.
