For now, Lim is keeping her order book forecast at $7 billion for FY2024. However, she sees a "high likelihood" of Seatrium hitting $10 billion in total orders if Seatrium wins two rig contracts from Petrobras, another long-time customer worth US$2.8 billion to US$3 billion each.
Lim expects Seatrium to start buying back shares following the 20 to 1 share consolidation, which takes effect on May 7.
The $100 million share buyback programme was announced on April 29.
Her pre-consolidation target price, as indicated in her May 6 note, is 14 cents, equivalent to FY2024 P/BV of 1.4 times, which is based on the average trading range between Jan 2015 and Dec 2023.
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"We stay 'add' on Seatrium as it is the only large-cap proxy in Asean to benefit from the global offshore & marine capex cycle," says Lim.
For her, potential re-rating catalysts would include sizeable order wins. Downside risks, meanwhile, are order cancellations impacting revenue recognition and project cost overruns affecting profitability.
