Now that “the greatest event that humanity has ever seen” (according to Fifa president Gianni Infantino) is finally underway, George Orwell’s famous 1945 assertion that international sport was “war minus the shooting” has to be revisited. In 2026, football’s 23rd World Cup comes with the shooting. Hostilities still have not ceased between the US and Iran, while in the build-up, Infantino’s fellow hyperbolist, US President Donald Trump, threatened to bomb one of its two co-hosts (Mexico) and annex the other (Canada).
If the latter can be dismissed as bluster, the damage to Iran and other Gulf states caught up in the conflict is all too real. Not to mention the stranglehold on the world economy. Nor has peace yet broken out for the game’s governing body Fifa, which faces subpoenas and class actions for its rampant fleecing of supporters. Orwell could never have envisaged an event of such magnitude, while “the shooting” is not sport-driven, the actual football could be seen as a welcome distraction.
Fifa is expecting to make a profit of US$9 billion ($11.5 billion) from the 39-day event, and its aggressive marketing and larcenous pricing are testimony to its determination to reach its target. If it does so, the proceeds will be almost double the US$5.24 billion made in the Paris Olympics.
Like Olympiads, World Cups have often been fraught in the making. Doubts about the readiness of infrastructure and transport have accompanied them ever since the inaugural event in Uruguay in 1930. The purpose-built stadium in Montevideo wasn’t fit for use until the ninth match. Five of the 13 teams, including neighbours Brazil, travelled by sea. Egypt, the 14th, didn’t make it, having literally missed the boat.
Fast forward almost a century, as teams qualified amid ecstatic scenes in unlikely places, the joy was soon tempered by insurmountable entry barriers and insane costs. The dream of attending has been dashed for tens of thousands in mostly Third World countries. Although the US has refrained from implementing its most feared deterrents, Fifa has stepped into the breach.
Ticket prices in quadruple digits are proof that the governing body has lost all sense that this is a people’s sport: it has become the principal scalper in a brazen cash grab. US$10,000 for the final is the headline, but a parking place could be a month’s salary in some countries. And at the Sofi Stadium in Los Angeles, you would still have a couple of kilometres to walk.
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When excessive heat is taken seriously enough to have water breaks for players, Fifa has banned fans from carrying plastic water bottles into stadiums — ensuring that they have to spend on their sponsors’ products, or risk dehydration!
But once the ball starts rolling, attention always switches to the field. And fortunately for the current version, the cast list is glittering. In showbiz terms, there is the Elvis and Sinatra of the modern game, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. The traditional A-list nations, minus Italy, will be there. Along with a dozen or so countries that didn’t expect to be — some that never dreamt of being there and a couple (Curaçao and Cape Verde) that many people did not know existed.
There was a time when neutrals “adopted” countries to follow. But in the age of the individual, Messi and Ronaldo top the bill. Both claim more followers than most countries, and this multinational flock switches allegiance when the players switch clubs. At international events, Argentina and Portugal are the permanent beneficiaries.
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For both megastars, it will be a sixth World Cup appearance — a record in itself — and even when it is their swansong, they will be taking on much more than a ceremonial role. Messi will be 39 on June 24 and Ronaldo is 41, so the tournament already has its narrative. Indeed, how well each has endured could decide the outcome, just as Messi’s genius was the difference for Argentina in 2022.
It is one of the most fascinating rivalries in the history of sport and certainly the most enduring. Think Ali-Frazier in boxing, Borg-McEnroe and Federer-Nadal in tennis, Prost-Senna in Formula One and Palmer-Nicklaus in golf. In each, one is more gifted and the other, more driven (perhaps to make up for the perceived deficiency).
Unlike the rest, it has rarely been head-to-head, but has instead been a largely subjective comparison. Their on-field roles are different, and Ronaldo has scored more goals (973 to 910). Still, Messi is widely considered the more gifted, as reflected by the eight Ballon d’Or awards to five over the pair’s unprecedented dominance between 2008 and 2023.
But like the tournament itself, their destiny is in the balance. Old Father Time could play a part for both, with many observers feeling that Ronaldo’s continued presence, where he can look laboured and lost, is holding Portugal back. Messi’s minutes on the pitch will also have to be carefully managed. The harsh fact is that both are playing in leagues well below the highest level and could finally be found wanting.
The favourites have a familiar ring: Spain, France, Argentina, England, Portugal and Germany. If it’s hard to see a new name on the trophy, South American/Western European hegemony could see challenges from Asia and Africa. Japan and African Nations champion Senegal could go deep in the tournament.
As problems have mounted for this largest-ever edition, the Qatar event gets better with each passing day. In North America, teams face gruelling, transcontinental journeys and ferocious heat and storms that stopped play in last year’s test run at the Club World Cup. Lengthy delays — one lasted an hour and 47 minutes — could perhaps level the playing field.
Spain, even without anyone from Real Madrid, looks packed with talent and boasts the brightest star in the firmament, Lamine Yamal, who is the heir apparent to Messi. France also has class and depth in every position and superstar striker Kylian Mbappé. Brazil is not the mesmeric Brazil of old, but can never be written off, and certainly not under the wise tutelage of Carlo Ancelotti. The prodigal Neymar, now 34, will be out to cap his career with a World Cup performance to cherish.
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Argentina will be confident of defending their crown in the Western hemisphere, even if Messi’s influence may be diminished. England, who have not won since 1966, are overdue, but the Three Lions are getting closer: a semi-final in 2018, a quarter-final in 2022, plus two final appearances in the Euros.
They probably have their best team since the Golden Generation of two decades ago, and under German manager Thomas Tuchel.
Germany has to make up for two successive failures to get beyond the group (in 2018 and 2022), so with exciting youngsters such as Lennart Karl and Jamal Musiala, they will be dark horses, even with a 40-year-old keeper in Manuel Neuer. As for the three hosts, only Mexico is a true footballing nation, so it may be fitting if the team that kicks it all off goes the furthest of the trio.
The hope is that football will again be the main focus, but not just as a diversion. What humanity would like to see is an end to the conflict and a return to sanity for spectators of the world’s favourite sport. And if it means a few empty seats to embarrass the two principal narcissists, Infantino and Trump, then so be it.
Bob Holmes is a long-time sportswriter specialising in football. This article first appeared in the June 15 issue of The Edge Malaysia
