Christmas Day, 2050, and it’s strange watching the family unwrap their presents. I see all those new brands that have emerged over the last 30 years, alongside those recognisably resilient names that survived and thrived. It sets me thinking about those brands that did not make it, and the events that triggered the remarkable transformation of our commerce landscape.
2020-2021 was the inflection point, wasn’t it? It separated out those companies with a commitment to adapt that truly defined their ability to survive. The trends had been simmering for years, but seismic shifts triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020 really amplified the urgency to act.
It was the period where an unwelcome pandemic transformed how we lived, worked and shopped. Companies were ravaged by the impact of Covid-19 shutdowns, small traders struggled to stay afloat, and aggregate corporate debt rose to historically high levels. It was a period of challenge and remarkable business resilience, and triggered the transformation that reshaped the business landscape for decades to follow.
Changing interactions
Analysts were quick to declare Covid-19 had accelerated commerce transformation and digital adoption by five years. I wondered if that prediction might have been too cautious. It certainly seemed so on the day in 2020 that I found my 85-year-old uncle comparing car servicing credits on an e-commerce site.
We all understood that Covid-19 had changed behaviour. What makes it even more remarkable, however, was how it transformed consumer and corporate mindsets. It impacted everything from how we shopped to how we ate and even to how we worked. It changed not just how individuals thought but how entire corporations thought. It gave urgency to previously niggling thoughts of modernisation and transformation.
That period triggered an unexpected return to more familial, back-to-basics social engagement, as we all craved social interactions lost to us down the vacant eyes of a webcam.
This societal shift persisted in 2021 and beyond, as people actively ditched boring office meetings and dinner parties for the comfort of computer screens and lounge wear. It wasn’t all the time of course, but it was often enough to normalise behaviour that introverts had craved for decades.
Digital ways of working and living went mainstream, with an estimated 300 million office workers working remotely around the world by March of 2020. Companies struggling to adjust to early pandemic impact became increasingly aware of the need to adapt to the lingering transformations in the new reality that followed.
The great rebound and take-off of consumerism
The first real signs that something had structurally changed came in 2021, as “revenge shopping” became a thing, trampling over analyst predictions of a retail recession. It was a collective commercial catharsis for the world, as we showed the Covid-19 virus that nothing could take our consumerism away from us. People dashed out to upgrade their phones, repurposed their wardrobes for a new kind of social and business life, and pampered themselves with spa packages they deserved after being shut away for so long.
Companies that prepared for this rampant and resurgent consumerism laughed their way to the bank. Those that failed to plan for the resurgence or had transitioned to cheaper product offerings during the disruption, had unfortunately planned to fail.
Undoubtedly, there were sectors that remained in pain during this period. It wasn’t until 2022 when the world truly rekindled its love for travel, as confusion surrounding vaccination timetables, national travel policies and company planning finally stabilised.
The commerce shift — fast-tracking ‘digital-enabled commerce‘
It seems strange looking back from 2050 to reflect on the other major shift — as everything from weddings and childbirth support to automobile purchases transitioned to being digitally enabled.
All those companies that said they could not engage customers online, learnt the hard way that it could be done. Every surviving company discovered some way to sell online, whether it was vegetables, candies, manicures, cars, education or even insurance. There are major financial institutions we used to rely on that the kids of 2050 have never heard of as they could not embrace that shift. Those who backed exclusive face-to-face relationships did not survive the shake-up.
Social commerce had been brewing for a few years, but it truly exploded in that period, as people began to turn away from underwhelming e-commerce experiences and explore the exciting world of real seller interactions. Can you imagine people shopping online like they used to before 2020? Scroll through some pictures, click a button, enter payment credentials, wait for delivery by an internal combustion vehicle. It sounds barbaric now.
It was also the period where online-to-offline (O2O) truly began to flourish. Companies finally realised that thoughts of a separated physical and e-commerce space were misleading. Teams were combined, and customer journeys reimagined. Digital was no longer a side-project that was farmed out — it became part of core team operations. Of course, this required significant and often painful transitions, and marked a defining period for the winners of 2030 with players like H&M, Ikea and Alibaba Group leading the way.
A new menu for F&B — how we eat changed
It goes without saying it was also a year where health was in the spotlight, beyond the virus — from vitamins to healthy lifestyles. It led to substantial shifts in our home-cooking and shopping habits which had a major impact across the value chain — all the way upstream to the agricultural industry, from urban farming to how food was retailed in stores. Organic, free-from, provenance, non-preserved, small community and local produced — all these trends were emerging before 2020 and really took off globally in the wake of Covid-19.
At the same time, that period was a difficult one for the F&B industry. Food retail grappled with an identity crisis, pressured by the question of whether physical retail would survive the online food delivery onslaught and the home cooking/healthy megatrend.
Those F&B companies that made extravagant strategic moves to focus on platform food delivery while downsizing physical outlets were in for a shock. Customers thronged their outlets in 2021, looking to reignite a love of outstanding food experiences in social settings.
Companies that transformed operations to cater for growth in digital ordering alongside dine-in opportunities went on to thrive. Smart moves by McDonald’s Corp and Domino’s Pizza made them leaders in this space, outperforming local chains struggling to adapt, and building their resilience for the future.
Those that redefined their offerings to include ready-to-eat and ready-to-cook products were able to capture new value. These companies recognised that they could add value to consumers’ lives beyond cooked-food and in-store experiences. They set up master classes, they got into ingredient retailing — almost treating themselves as a platform for products and services.
Companies that changed and thrived
The most important thing to remember about 2021 is that it was the year companies realised they had to change. It was no longer enough to take teasing, incremental steps. It was not good enough to tentatively transition a single function as they were used to. It was a time to truly embrace the most shamelessly flaunted term in business — transformation.
The year 2021 was a pivotal one in which the best companies rode the uncertainty of the pandemic as a tidal wave of transformation. They stopped talking about agility and started living it. They changed their offerings, invested in technology, and truly began to believe that data-driven and AI-enabled business practices could unlock value for their organisation. They started thinking about simplification and imagined new areas of play. They designed and delivered completely digital experiences. They learnt to operate in hybrid and remote work locations, and recognised that engagement of employees had nothing to do with proximity to their managers.
Those companies that survived and thrived in the decades that followed, did so because they genuinely live and breathe that change. That’s how the Covid era of 2020-21 changed the commerce landscape, and why the list of top global companies transformed so radically in the 30 years from 2020 to 2050.
Shiv Choudhury is a managing director and partner at Boston Consulting Group Singapore
