(March 25): A Democrat is poised to represent US President Donald Trump and his Mar-a-Lago residence in the Florida state House of Representatives after Republicans lost a special election in a surprise upset.
With nearly all the ballots counted, Democratic candidate Emily Gregory was projected to defeat her Republican opponent, Jon Maples, in a special election Tuesday with more than 51% of the vote, according to Decision Desk HQ. Maples trailed by less than a thousand votes at 48.8%, DDHQ reported.
Republicans hold a wide majority in the Florida statehouse, so the upset will have little effect on state politics. But it represents a symbolic win for Democrats and a warning sign for Republicans ahead of the November congressional midterms where the GOP is battling to retain their majorities in the US House and Senate.
Trump easily won Florida’s 87th legislative district in 2024. It includes Palm Beach, which Trump declared his primary residence during his first term, switching from Manhattan’s Trump Tower to his Mar-a-Lago resort.
The loss is also personal for Trump, who backed Maples on Monday, posting on social media that he gave the Republican candidate “MY COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT!”
The defeat may also complicate GOP plans to redraw US House maps in Florida in a way that could net Republicans more seats. That’s because spreading Republican voters out more thinly across more districts may reduce their average partisan lean — making them easier for Democrats to pick up if they have a particularly good year. Political scientists call that rare scenario a “dummymander” — because it’s when an attempt to gerrymander seats hits the authors of the map harder than their opposition does.
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Gregory, according to her campaign website, runs a fitness centre for recent mothers and pregnant women. Like many successful Democratic candidates in Trump’s second term, she emphasised the cost of living and pledged “to fight for a healthier, more affordable Florida where families can thrive.”
Gregory’s win adds to a series of Democratic victories or overperformances in off-cycle and special elections in recent months, including in Florida. Late last year, Eileen Higgins won Miami’s mayoral runoff, becoming the first Democrat in almost three decades to lead the city.
As polls show that voters have soured on Trump’s handling of the economy, Democrats sense opportunity in national, as well as state and local, races. The unpopularity of the Iran war has only intensified Democratic optimism and Republican anxieties.
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“The clock is ticking for Florida House Republicans,” said a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “The only thing that Florida’s Republican delegation has to offer is chaos, scandal, and higher prices — and voters are sick of it.”
Uploaded by Arion Yeow
