Goldman’s proprietary indicators of activity growth still remain positive, with its business survey trackers averaging a slightly-expansionary 52 in February, with the dividing line at 50, Hatzius said in a research note.
Goldman’s real-time estimate on jobs data suggests the layoff rate ticked up slightly though remains low at 1.2%, while the jobs-workers gap declined to remain above the 2 million level its economists estimate is necessary to “rebalance the labour market.”
Global investors have become extremely sensitive to the potential for systemic financial stresses, fears that were further escalated by the crisis of confidence in Credit Suisse Group AG. In response, swaps traders have brought forward expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
