Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee Shun Rong of Maybank Securities (Maybank) similarly keep their NDOX forecast of 4% and their gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast of 3.2%, which they note is higher than the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s (MTI) revised forecast range of 1.5% to 2.5%.
On the other hand, chief economist at RHB Bank Singapore (RHB) Barnabas Gan and his colleague, Laalitha Raveenthar, forecast a slowdown in NODX momentum for Singapore in the second half, with a full-year growth forecast of 2.0% following the 1H2025’s expansion of 5.2%.
UOB’s Liew notes that the 4.6% NODX decline in July, although worse than Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.0%, was close to his “more conservative” forecast of 5.0%.
The contraction was largely due to the 6.6% drop in non-electronic exports, of which the lacklustre performance of pharmaceutical exports and petrochemicals saw an 18.9% and 23.4% y-o-y decline, respectively.
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Electronics NODX continued to expand but at a slower pace of 2.8% y-o-y, compared to June’s 8.0% and May’s 1.6%.
Liew writes in his Aug 18 report: “That said, front-loading momentum persisted into July as non-oil re-exports (NORX) expanded strongly by 22.1% y-o-y, reflected in the continued robust electronics NORX and pick-up in non-electronics NORX.”
The softer performance of electronics NODX, he notes, was due to “contrasting fortunes” among key electronics sub-segments.
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“Growth was driven by a surge in personal computers within consumer electronics, moderating rise for integrated circuits while the rest of the key electronics sub-segments mostly declined, in particular, a 93.8% y-o-y contraction in other computer peripherals,” writes Liew.
By destination, Singapore’s exports to the US weakened, contracting by 42.7% y-o-y in July, followed by China at 12.2% y-o-y, and Indonesia at 32.2% y-o-y. In contrast, exports to East Asian markets excluding China remained “quite resilient and robust”, particularly to Taiwan and South Korea. This, Liew notes, likely reflects spillovers from structural artificial intelligence (AI) related demand.
He adds: “Another notable destination was the European Union’s (EU) 27 countries, which saw NODX there rebounding strongly by 77.1% y-o-y in July from June’s 23.6% dip due entirely to non-electronic exports.”
On GDP, Liew had previously noted that Singapore’s resilient 1H2025 GDP growth was supported by front-loading of exports and to a lesser extent, manufacturing in anticipation of further US tariffs.
He writes: “However, we maintain the view that payback from earlier front-loading is likely to dampen growth in 2H2025, compounded by potential drag from US reciprocal tariffs. In our view, the eventual growth ‘payback’ may be more pronounced in the trade-related services rather than in the manufacturing sector, as front-loading seems to be more pronounced in electronics exports and less so in non-electronics exports and manufacturing.”
Any further growth drag in these sectors, Liew adds, is likely to stem from weaker demand due to tariffs, as well as the additional risks of US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Chua and Lee of Maybank are slightly more positive, noting that July’s NODX decline is “unlikely to persist”, given the “abnormally high base” for July 2024’s outturn.
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On electronics demand, they write: “Relatively lower US tariffs, the extension of the US-China tariff truce and broadening global AI demand will mitigate the payback and severity of the second half export slowdown.”
With falling interest rates, a construction boom and “generous” fiscal support cushioning the trade impact from US tariffs, the pair are are forecasting the 3-month Singapore overnight rate average (SORA) rate to slide to 1.5% by year-end and 1.2% by end-2026, as safe haven flows continue and the US Federal Reserve cuts the funds rate.
“We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to maintain its current modest appreciation stance at the October meeting and for the rest of this year, as growth has been resilient while inflation has stabilised at benign levels within the MAS forecast range,” add Chua and Lee.
In a sidenote, the pair note that Aug 17’s National Day Rally focused on jobs, infrastructure and housing, with “no further handouts” to households and firms, after a “fairly generous” Budget 2025.
Chua and Lee write: “The step up in infrastructure and construction spending will help cushion the economy from any global trade slowdown. More broadly, developing the north and coastal protection infrastructure will sustain Singapore’s ongoing construction boom until the end of the decade.”
On the other hand, RHB’s Gan and Raveenthar have lowered their NODX projections on mounting risks to Singapore’s trade outlook, noting that export-driven sectors, particularly electronics, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals are likely to face increasing headwinds amid waning global demand and rising trade policy uncertainty.
On a brighter note, they note that their GDP forecast of 2.0%, with an upside bias toward 3.0% “could materialise” if trade tensions ease or external demand stabilises more quickly than expected.
“Still, even if empirical Singapore's economic growth aligns with our upside bias of 3.0% in 2025, it indicates a slowdown prognosis in 2H2025, accounting for 1H2025's growth of 4.3% y-o-y,” add the pair.
For the team of economists at OCBC Global Research (OCBC) led by head of research and strategy Selena Ling, July’s NODX 4.6% y-o-y contraction was close to her forecast of 4.5%.
She notes that the drag in non-electronics suggests that even sustained positive electronics NODX growth “may not be sufficient” to offset the weakness in non-electronics exports should pharmaceuticals exports stay soft.
On NORX, DBS Bank’s (DBS) Chua Han Teng sees that the 22.1% y-o-y expansion in July was “off its peak” of 39.3% in April. Thus, he expects this to ease in the coming months as the boost from earlier exports front-loading fades.
Overall, Chua is bearish: “The weak NODX data for July 2025 could portend the beginning of a weaker profile for Singapore’s exports in 2H2025 compared to the resilience in 1H2025.”
Economist Sheana Yue of Oxford Economics sums up her thoughts on the 2H2025: “Although Singapore's tariff rate didn’t rise above the April 10% baseline, its open and trade reliant economy isn't immune to the indirect effects from higher tariffs elsewhere, especially regional neighbours.”
“What's more, the lack of clarity on the definition of ‘transhipment’ may impact re-exports to Singapore, and in turn the wider trade logistics sector,” adds Yue.
