The 20 economists who took part in the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) September survey of professional forecasters are now expecting Singapore’s 2025 GDP to expand by 2.4%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.7%.
The higher estimate is due to a more bullish outlook on manufacturing at 0.8%, up from -0.3%; construction at 4.7%, up from 3.3%; wholesale & retail trade at 2.9%, up from 2.2%; and non-oil domestic exports (NODX) at 2.2%, up from 1%. The only sector to see a lower estimate is accommodation & food services at 0.5%, down from 1.5%.
Following Singapore’s 4.4% y-o-y GDP expansion in 2Q2025, exceeding the economists’ median forecast of 3% in the previous survey, the economists now expect the economy to grow by 0.9% y-o-y in 3Q2025.
According to the respondents, the Singapore economy is most likely to grow by 2% to 2.4% this year with a probability of 36%, compared to 1.5% to 1.9% in the previous survey.
In 2025, the economists also expect Singapore’s CPI-All items inflation, or headline inflation, to come in at 0.9% y-o-y, while MAS core inflation is expected to increase by 0.7%, slightly lower than the 0.8% forecast in the previous survey.
The exchange rate for the Singapore dollar (SGD) to the US dollar (USD) is expected to be at 1.285, down from the 1.30 expected in June. The Singapore overnight rate average (Sora) is now expected to end the year at 1.71%, down from 2.1%. Bank loans, however, are expected to end the year with a 3.1% growth, up from June’s 2.6% forecast.
In 3Q2025, headline inflation is tipped to come in at 0.8% while core inflation is expected to be at 0.6%, unchanged from June’s forecast.
For the year, the economists assigned the highest probability to headline inflation coming in at 0.5% to 0.9% at 59%, a shift from the 1% to 1.4% range in the previous survey. Core inflation is also likely to be within the 0.5% to 0.9% forecast range, unchanged from the previous survey, but with the probability rising from 58% to 77%
2026 expectations
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In 2026, the economists expect Singapore’s GDP to expand by 1.9% with their forecasts of the most probable outcome for growth in the 1.5% to 1.9% range, similar to the previous survey.
Next year, headline inflation is most likely to range between 1.5% to 1.9%, unchanged from the previous survey, while core inflation is most likely to range between 1% to 1.4%, down from the previous survey’s 1.5% to 1.9% read.
Outlook risks
Like the June survey, economists cited geopolitical tensions —which includes the introduction of semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs — remain the most cited downside risk to the outlook for the Singapore economy.
An external slowdown and the financial market were also cited as downside risks.
On the other hand, upside risks cited were the milder-than-expected and/or the easing of trade tensions, the tech cycle and inflows into Singapore.
Monetary policy
Ahead of MAS’s monetary policy review in October, 42% of the respondents anticipate an easing with 37% believing this will happen via a flattening of the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate index (S$NEER). Almost all economists believe there will not be any monetary policy shift in the January 2026 policy review.
