Bank of America Global Research (BofA) has upgraded its 2025 GDP forecast for Singapore to 2.9% from 2.3% previously, citing “resilience” between July and August.
Singapore’s 3Q2025 GDP is likely to expand sequentially, say Ang Kai Wei, Asean economist at Merrill Lynch (Singapore); and Rahul Bajoria, India and Asean economist at Bank of America Securities India.
August trade-related indicators point to some support for Singapore’s wholesale and retail trade and transportation and storage segments, which together make up around 20% of GDP.
Comparing the monthly average for July-August compared to 2Q2025, non-oil re-exports (NORX) fell by almost 6% (exaggerated by the spike in April), but was still almost 9% above the monthly average for 1Q2025, write the analysts.
Meanwhile, container throughput is up by almost 1% and posting new all-time highs. Sea cargo and vessel arrivals were up by almost 2%.
MAS could raise GDP forecast in October
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Manufacturing GDP should expand sequentially in 3Q2025, if activities do not collapse in August-September after the spike in July, they add in a Sept 17 note.
Accommodation and F&B could also expand sequentially in 3Q2025, with tourism activities seemingly encouraging, and some support from one-off vouchers for residents equivalent to some $2.02 billion that were disbursed from July.
“All in, we pencil in GDP expanding by 0.7% q-o-q seasonally adjusted (SA) in 3Q2025. In y-o-y terms, this translates to 2%, with the ‘modest’ reading due to high base effects,” say the analysts.
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Looking at the final quarter, Ang and Bajoria assume that Singapore’s GDP could pull back sequentially by 0.5% in 4Q2025, as transshipment momentum could “fade off more meaningfully”.
The analysts think that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will signal in the October Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) that 2025 GDP could exceed the current official forecast range of 1.5% to 2.5%.
Still, BofA is maintaining its 2026 GDP forecast at a “below-trend pace” of 2%, assuming that q-o-q SA growth averages 0.6% to 0.7% over the year.
BofA expects MAS to temporarily pause easing “at least the next couple of meetings”.
“Our base case is for MAS to flatten the slope in April 2026, especially if the January-February 2026 CPI report suggests that usual start-of-year price mark-ups in early 2026 are lower than usual norms,” they add.
