(March 27): Oil may hit a record US$200 a barrel if the Iran war drags on till June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, Macquarie Group Ltd said.
A conflict that stretches through the second quarter would result in historically high real prices, analysts including Vikas Dwivedi said in a note, outlining a scenario with odds of 40%. An alternative outlook, with probability of 60%, suggested the war may finish at the end of this month, they said.
Brent crude is on pace for a record monthly gain in March, as the war between the US, Israel and Iran has rocked the oil-rich Middle East. The conflict has seen Tehran oversee a near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, severely restricting flows of energy that are vital to the global economy.
“If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” the analysts said in the March 27 report. “The timing of the re-opening of the strait, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities.”
Brent was last near US$107 a barrel on Friday, after touching a crisis-high of US$119.50 earlier this month. The benchmark set a nominal peak of US$147.50 a barrel in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
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