(April 17): Asian stocks on Friday fell as investors lightened their positions ahead of the weekend while awaiting progress on extending the US-Iran ceasefire, after a rally driven by expectations the truce would be prolonged.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index dropped 0.8%, snapping three days of gains. The cautious end to the week followed a 10-day rally in global equities that pushed markets to a record high, as traders bet easing tensions will lower oil prices and support economic growth. Wall Street gauges also closed at all-time highs for a second consecutive day.
Global crude benchmark Brent dropped 1.1% to US$98.25 ($125.06) a barrel after US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about securing a permanent ceasefire with Iran ahead of the expiry of the current truce next week. Gold was a touch weaker at around US$4,775 an ounce, while Treasuries were little changed.
Investors are awaiting progress in talks that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing crude flows and relieving pressure on economies after oil prices surged following the conflict’s onset in late February. While oil has pared its war-driven premium and stocks have climbed to record highs, policymakers are warning that markets may be underestimating the war’s economic toll.
“Markets head into the final session of the week sitting at key technical and psychological levels, with conviction still lacking as traders wait for clearer signals out of the Middle East,” Nick Twidale, the chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note.
Trump claimed, without evidence, that Iran had agreed to terms it has long resisted, including giving up ambitions for a nuclear weapon and turning over nuclear material. The deal would also include “free oil” and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, the president said. Tehran hasn’t confirmed it’s made those concessions.
See also: Stock rally builds on US-Iran plan, dollar weakens
The prospects for a deal with Iran are “looking very good”, Trump said.
Earlier, Trump announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. His announcement on Thursday made no mention of Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in a video message that he had agreed to the truce.
See also: Asian stocks rise, oil drops on US-Iran peace push
“Asian markets are pricing in a ceasefire extension that does not yet exist,” said Oriano Lizza, a sales trader at CMC Markets in Singapore. “The Nikkei has soared past its February record, while Brent crude has steadied above US$94 per barrel after whipsawing at the start of the week. These moves have relied on diplomatic signals rather than a signed deal. That sets up real risk in current market positions.”
Traders are also focused on the dollar, which has weakened after rallying on haven demand since the war began in late February. Deutsche Bank AG and Wells Fargo & Co are among banks declaring the greenback’s war-driven haven rally is likely over as the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran prompts investors to seek riskier assets.
Elsewhere, Netflix Inc slid in after-hours trading after issuing a second-quarter forecast that missed analysts’ expectations. US equity-index futures were mixed, with contracts for the S&P 500 Index edging up 0.1%, while contracts for the Nasdaq 100 were flat.
“The week rounds out on a slight lull, with limited event risk and a cautious eye on the weekend, which markets have become accustomed to bringing fresh geopolitical risk,” wrote Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com Inc.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 10.48am Tokyo time on Friday
- Japan’s Topix fell 1.1%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8%
- The Shanghai Composite fell 0.2%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.1%
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Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at US$1.1777
- The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 159.34 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.8230 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 0.7% to US$74,708.49
- Ether fell 0.8% to US$2,331.98
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.31%
- Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 2.405%
- Australia’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 5.01%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to US$93.22 a barrel
- Spot gold fell 0.3% to US$4,777.68 an ounce
Uploaded by Tham Yek Lee
