(April 28): Gold edged lower as efforts to resume peace talks between the US and Iran remained at an impasse, two months into a war that’s upended global markets and raised inflation risks.
Bullion slipped below US$4,700 an ounce on Monday, after Axios reported that Iran had given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing negotiations on its nuclear programme. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump canceled a planned trip by his top envoys to Pakistan, while Tehran said it won’t negotiate as long as it’s being threatened.
“Unless we see a more durable reopening or a credible path towards a peace deal, any renewed upside in gold is likely to prove temporary, with prices continuing to trade in a range,” said Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd.
Oil rose on Monday, with Hormuz virtually impassable due to blockades set up by both countries. The energy-supply shock has added to inflation risks, raising the likelihood that central banks will keep interest rates steady for longer or even hike them, a headwind for non-yielding bullion. The precious metal has lost about 10% since the conflict began at the end of February.
Gold is “in technical no-man’s-land,” Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP SA, said in a note. “Conviction is thin, larger allocations remain sidelined, physical is mixed, and ‘lost’ is probably the most honest word for where the market is right now.”
See also: Why Modi wants Indians to stop buying gold — Bloomberg analysis
The effective closure of Hormuz has disrupted around a fifth of the world’s oil flows. A fragile ceasefire largely held over the weekend, but Trump told his envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, to skip their trip to Pakistan, which is mediating talks. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his nation won’t enter “imposed negotiations under threats or blockade”.
“The ‘ceasefire-on/ceasefire-off’ headline roulette has conditioned the market,” Shiels said. “With gold now behaving as a risk asset — negatively correlated with oil, loosely positively correlated with equities but a poor proxy for both — there’s little appetite to chase it sub-US$5,000.”
Spot gold fell 0.7% to US$4,679.092 an ounce as of 4.43pm in London. Silver lost 0.7% to US$75.22 an ounce. Platinum was down 1.1%, while palladium fell 1.4%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped 0.2%.
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