(May 7): Asian equities climbed to a record, powered by a catchup rally in Japanese stocks after a holiday, as optimism grew that the US and Iran were nearing a deal to end the conflict that had rattled markets and clouded economic outlook.
The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 5.3% to an all-time high and helped the broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index rise 1.8% on expectations that lower tensions in the Middle East would ease oil prices and help lift economic growth. Asian gains followed US gauges closing at record highs on Wednesday as traders boosted bets on further equity gains with about 80% of companies in the S&P 500 Index reporting better-than-estimated earnings in the current season.
Brent edged up 0.6% to around US$102 a barrel after sliding almost 8% on Wednesday. Bonds rose in Asian trading, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling one basis point to 4.34%. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar traded close to pre-war levels.
Attention is also on the yen, which steadied around 156.30 per dollar early Thursday after strengthening in the prior session amid speculation that officials are intervening in the market.
The moves reflected optimism over easing Middle East tensions as the US and Iran circled a fresh proposal to end the nearly 10-week conflict. Easing tensions helped global equities erase war-driven losses and push to fresh highs, as lower oil prices reduced inflation concerns and revived momentum in the artificial intelligence trade.
“We remain on the path towards de-escalation, and towards an end to the conflict,” said Michael Brown at Pepperstone. “While that path is clearly a rough one, so long as we remain on it, and the direction of travel remains a more optimistic one, then risk appetite should remain underpinned.”
See also: Stocks pare losses, bonds drop on US inflation
Washington has presented a one-page memorandum of understanding that would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the American blockade on Iranian ports, according to a person familiar with the measure. Detailed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme would come later in the process, the person said, adding that nothing has yet been agreed.
The move came after Trump suspended a short-lived US mission to offer safe passage for commercial ships through the strait, a vital waterway for oil and gas. Iran’s response is awaited.
Adding to his urgency is a summit scheduled next week with Chinese President Xi Jinping, which already was postponed in the early days of the conflict because of the Middle East backdrop.
See also: Asian stocks decline, led by Korea, oil climbs
Trump said the war has “a very good chance of ending” and there’s a possibility that happens before his trip to Beijing next week, according to an interview with PBS News Hour. China’s top diplomat called for the swift reopening of Hormuz in a meeting with his Iranian counterpart.
“We believe that institutional investors and in particular macro managers have room to further increase their equity exposures from here,” JPMorgan strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note.
Investors also parsed the latest economic data ahead of Friday’s jobs report. US companies boosted payrolls in April by the most in over a year, the latest evidence of stabilisation in the labour market.
Fed Bank of St Louis President Alberto Musalem said there’s uncertainty over the future path for the economy and monetary policy, but he sees risks rising more for inflation than for employment. His Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee warned against reflexively lowering rates in response to faster productivity growth, as the phenomenon can sometimes drive up prices.
Corporate highlights:
- Nvidia Corp bought US$500 million worth of rights for shares in the fibre-optic cable maker Corning Inc as part of a broader partnership between the two companies aimed at expanding artificial-intelligence infrastructure.
- Anthropic PBC signed an agreement with Elon Musk’s SpaceX to bolster computing resources and meet surging demand for its Claude AI software.
- Arm Holdings plc disappointed investors with its sales forecast for the current quarter, signalling that the chip designer’s push into AI infrastructure is still in the early stages.
- Eli Lilly & Co’s blockbuster diabetes drug Mounjaro has surpassed Merck & Co’s cancer therapy Keytruda as the world’s best-selling medication.
- Walt Disney Co posted stronger results than Wall Street expected thanks to improved profitability at its streaming business, new Avatar and Zootopia movies, and guests spending more at the company’s resorts and on cruises.
- China’s financial regulator advised the country’s largest lenders to temporarily suspend new loans to five refineries recently sanctioned by the US over their ties to Iranian oil, according to people familiar with the matter.
Some of the main moves in markets:
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Stocks
- S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 10.37am Tokyo time
- Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 5.5%
- Japan’s Topix rose 3%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.8%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.5%
- The Shanghai Composite rose 0.2%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro rose 0.1% to US$1.1761
- The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 156.10 per dollar
- The offshore yuan rose 0.1% to 6.8040 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin fell 0.3% to US$81,181.53
- Ether fell 0.8% to US$2,330.74
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.34%
- Japan’s 10-year yield declined 1.5 basis points to 2.485%
- Australia’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.91%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to US$95.78 a barrel
- Spot gold rose 0.4% to US$4,708.63 an ounce
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