(March 27): Oil edged lower and US equity futures advanced as traders assessed a 10-day extension to a deadline for Iran to strike a deal with the US or face more attacks.
West Texas Intermediate slipped as much as 1.6% in early Friday trading, following a gain of almost 6% in the previous session. Futures contracts for US equity indexes rose 0.3% after the underlying S&P 500 fell 1.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined 2.4% on Thursday.
Contracts for Japanese, Australian and Hong Kong benchmarks indicated declines at the open.
US President Donald Trump again pushed back his deadline for Iran to strike a deal with the US or face more attacks, saying talks with the country were going “very well”. Trump said he would extend, by 10 days, his pledge to refrain from attacks on Iranian energy sites, offering a brief calm to global energy markets jolted by the conflict.
Higher energy prices stoked fears about inflation, deepening a decline in Treasuries, which also dropped amid a lacklustre US sale of notes.
The US 10-year rose eight basis points to 4.41% on Thursday, while the policy-sensitive two-year yield increased 10 basis points to 3.99%. Australian yields rose early Friday.
See also: Global stock sell-off eases as futures rise, oil slips
The moves have extended the war-driven volatility of the past month, highlighting how geopolitical tensions continue to buffet markets and leaving investors struggling to assess whether hostilities are nearing de-escalation or set to intensify.
“The progress being made in the talks between the US and Iran seems to be sketchy at best,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
Earlier, Trump threatened Iran with intensified military action after Tehran rejected Washington’s push for a peace deal, with the two sides far apart in efforts to end the war. Until Iran agrees to stop the conflict, the US will “keep blowing them away”, the American president said.
See also: As the war drags on, is it time for investors here to ‘dig in’?
Iran responded to a ceasefire proposal through intermediaries overnight, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, and is now awaiting a reply. Tehran has a string of conditions for ending the conflict, one of which is a guarantee that the US and Israel won’t resume their attacks.
In Asia, data set for release on Friday includes trade for the Philippines, industrial profits for China and manufacturing production for Thailand. Japan is set to sell ¥4.7 trillion of three-month bills.
The US and Israel began a bombing campaign in Iran almost a month ago, leading Tehran to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz, snarling the flow of oil and roiling markets. Trump noted that Tehran has allowed 10 oil tankers to sail through the vital waterway.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a US insurance programme meant to boost shipping through the strait will begin soon, a move that may help revive flows of much of the world’s oil and gas supplies.
Brent, the global crude benchmark is on pace for a monthly gain of almost 50% as the conflict engulfs the energy-rich Middle East and sends shockwaves through the global economy. The near-total closure of Hormuz has meant millions of barrels of lost daily oil output, while supercharging product prices from diesel to jet fuel.
“The war in Iran and the resulting surge in oil prices continue to dampen risk appetite,” said Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial. “Any sustainable market recovery will require meaningful progress towards a peace agreement and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.”
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