Here’s what market watchers are saying:
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist in Singapore at Saxo Markets
“Headlines of an Israeli air strike inside Iran have reignited the geopolitical-risk premium. Whether this risk-off tone sticks now depends on the next 24-48 hours. If Tehran’s response is limited and energy flows remain uninterrupted, experience suggests the premium can bleed out fairly quickly. But any sign of retaliation or supply disruption would keep volatility elevated and push oil and safe-haven assets higher.”
Billy Leung, investment strategist in Sydney at Global X ETFs
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Key for investors now is whether the latest attacks stay contained, providing traders opportunities to fade market moves
“It’s a sharp reversal from last night’s bullishness, when tech optimism, soft inflation, and light positioning had the market leaning risk-on — a direct Israeli strike on Iran cuts through that narrative instantly,”
“This mirrors past flashpoints like the Soleimani strike in 2020, tanker attacks in 2019, where we saw the same initial reaction: oil bid, Treasuries and Swiss franc stronger”
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“The key now is whether this stays contained — history shows markets often fade the shock if escalation is limited”
Wei Liang Chang, a Singapore-based macro strategist at DBS Group Holdings
Safe havens such as the yen and US Treasuries will remain bid as markets watch for any signs of escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran
“There could be a knee-jerk reaction in markets, as Middle East geopolitical risks return to to the fore”
“Markets will assess the impact of the strike and watch for risks of an escalation”
“Risky assets could see a pare back, while safe havens such the yen and US Treasuries could be bid”
Matthew Haupt, portfolio manager in Sydney at Wilson Asset Management
“Seeing classical risk off moves with bonds and gold bid, along with a spike in oil. Quite often these moves are faded after the initial shocks. What we are watching now for is the speed and scale of the response from Tehran, that will shape the duration of the current moves.”
