(June 12): A rally in Wall Street stocks extended into Asia after President Donald Trump said the US was nearing an agreement with Iran, raising hopes for a diplomatic end to the conflict. Oil dropped.
MSCI’s Asia Pacific equities gauge rose 2.6%, snapping a two-day drop, on optimism for a resolution in the Middle East. South Korea’s Kospi Index — a barometer for artificial intelligence (AI) investments — jumped 8.2%, following a surge in chip stocks in the US. The tech sector remained in focus with futures contracts for the Nasdaq 100 climbing 0.6% after a rally in the underlying benchmark on Thursday. Focus is also on SpaceX, which raised US$75 billion ($96.36 billion) with the world’s biggest IPO.
Brent crude fell 1.4% to around US$89.10 a barrel as Trump pulled back from threatened military attacks against Iran, citing discussions that have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership for a negotiated end to the war. He said a signing could take place as soon as this weekend in Europe with Vice-President JD Vance in attendance.
Treasuries pared some of Thursday’s gains, sending the yield on the 10-year higher by one basis point to 4.47%. Gold edged lower after advancing more than 3% on Thursday.
The latest push for a deal has buoyed risk sentiment by raising hopes that a broader Middle East conflict can be avoided, shifting attention back to company earnings and the AI-driven rally. Investors see de-escalation as easing a key source of uncertainty and reducing the risk of energy-supply disruptions that could lift oil prices and reinforce higher-for-longer interest rates.
“While the path toward a resolution is likely to be uneven, our base case is that diplomacy ultimately prevails, allowing investors to refocus on resilient economic fundamentals and robust earnings growth,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Chief Investment Office.
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Trump’s pullback of threatened military strikes against Iran was a stark reversal that came just hours after he vowed to hit the Islamic Republic “VERY HARD” and threatened to seize its oil infrastructure.
Iran’s semi-official news agency Fars, however, said earlier Thursday that officials had not yet approved the text of any agreement with the US, citing an unnamed source.
Trump’s comments lowered yields across maturities by eight to 11 basis points on Thursday, to the lowest levels of the week. Short-term rate contracts that reflect expectations for the Federal Reserve — and had fully priced in a quarter-point increase in the US policy rate by December — shifted the assessment to the first quarter of 2027.
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Earlier Thursday, the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time since 2023.
The oil-driven moves in bonds were complicated by the release of US inflation data showing bigger increases in wholesale prices in May than economists had estimated. Core prices excluding energy and food rose less than estimated, however.
“Many are telling us they think the worst of the inflation data is in,” said Tony Farren, managing director in rates sales and trading at Mischler Financial Group. Lower-than-expected increases in core inflation despite higher energy prices “have changed the mindset of the Treasury market at least temporarily”.
Corporate highlights:
- Adobe Inc said that its chief financial officer would depart the company, leaving the company without a top tier of veteran leadership after chief executive officer Shantanu Narayen announced in March that he would step aside.
- Intel Corp jumped as Bank of America Corp turned bullish on the chipmaker and upgraded it to a buy rating.
- Oracle Corp sank after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates.
- Eaton Corp agreed to merge its mobility business with Dana Inc in a deal valuing the combined company at roughly US$10 billion including debt.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
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- S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as of 9.46am Tokyo time
- Hang Seng futures rose 0.9%
- Japan’s Topix rose 2.1%
- Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 1.8%
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 2%
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at US$1.1567
- The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 160.21 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.7667 per dollar
- The Australian dollar fell 0.1% to US$0.7041
Cryptocurrencies
- Bitcoin rose 0.4% to US$63,622.68
- Ether rose 0.2% to US$1,673.48
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.47%
- Australia’s 10-year yield declined seven basis points to 4.83%
Commodities
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to US$86.35 a barrel
- Spot gold fell 0.2% to US$4,205.83 an ounce
Uploaded by Chng Shear Lane
