(April 29): China’s dominance of rare earths supply chains gives President Xi Jinping economic leverage worth US$1.2 trillion ($1.5 trillion) in his planned summit meeting with US President Donald Trump in Beijing next month.
Fresh analysis from Bloomberg Economics finds that around 4% of US GDP — totalling some US$1.2 trillion — is derived from industries that use rare earths. While some US industries may be able to work around any supply disruption, most don’t have good substitutes and some would need to shut down in the event of any cut-off.
“In some cases, rare earth inputs are ‘golden screws’: In the event of a disruption, manufacturers would be hard-pressed to substitute away or would need many months, if not years, to do so,” BE’s Nicole Gorton-Caratelli and Chris Kennedy wrote in the note.
Those sectors account for around 1.4% of US GDP, they wrote. For other sectors, substitution is possible but at higher costs.
China leveraged its dominance of rare earths supply chains to retaliate against Trump’s tariff salvos last year by restricting their exports. Following a meeting between Trump and Xi in late October, China agreed to a one-year suspension of its tighter controls.
See also: World Bank sees commodity prices hitting four-year high in 2026
Trump is set to travel to Beijing May 14-15 for a summit with Xi that’s widely expected to include a variety of business deals and purchasing commitments. It was delayed from late March because of the Iran war and the need for Trump to stay in Washington.
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