(June 3): Vietnam’s trade deficit widened to a record high as imports surged on rising global raw material prices, while exporters braced for potential new US tariffs.
The deficit in May rose to US$5.21 billion, according to data released by the National Statistics Office in Hanoi Wednesday. That was well above the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey for a US$3.98 billion shortfall, as well as the revised US$3.99 billion deficit reported for April.
Vietnam’s exports jumped 18% in May, the statistics office said, slower than economists’ forecast of 19.7% growth. Imports were higher than expected at 33.8%.
The widening shortfall “was driven largely by higher import costs for energy and semiconductor components, as concerns over global chip shortages and rising prices prompted many companies to increase purchases and build up inventories", according to Pham Vu Thang Long, chief economist at Ho Chi Minh City Securities.
The data shows the cost to Vietnam’s manufacturing-led economy as the war in the Middle East pushes up crude oil and other input costs. It also faces renewed trade uncertainty after the US proposed new tariffs on imports from most major trading partners following an investigation into forced-labour practices, which would hit Vietnam.
For the first five months of 2026, Vietnam’s trade deficit totalled US$13.8 billion, overturning a US$5.1 billion trade surplus in the same period last year.
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“The record high deficit will weaken the country’s balance of payments position and add more pressure on the dong and FX reserves,” Long said.
The headwinds risk stalling one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies, with the government already warning it could be “challenging” to meet its 10% growth goal this year. Vietnam is set to report its second-quarter economic performance in July.
The US remains Vietnam’s biggest export market; its January-May trade surplus with the world’s biggest economy increased 21.1% to US$60.4 billion from a year earlier, according to the statistics office.
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China was Vietnam’s top source of imports, shipping an estimated US$92.6 billion of goods in the first five months of the year.
Production input goods accounted for 94.1% of Vietnam’s total imports, reaching US$215.99 billion in January-May. Imports of electronics, computers and components surged 57.1% while machinery, equipment and spare parts were up 21.6%.
Meanwhile, Vietnam’s consumer prices climbed 5.60% in May from a year earlier, accelerating from the 5.46% in April and the central bank’s forecast of as much as 5.5% this year.
Inflation quickened as a surge in global energy prices driven by the Iran war fed into transport, services and material costs.
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