(April 15): The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of peace talks in the coming days, while a stand-off in the Strait of Hormuz worsens a global energy crisis and complicates diplomatic prospects.
The objective is to hold more discussions before an April 7 ceasefire expires next week, according to people familiar with the matter. One proposal is to return to Pakistan, where initial negotiations were held last weekend, though other venues are being considered, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.
US President Donald Trump said talks could resume “over the next two days” in Pakistan, the New York Post reported. That would build on a marathon yet inconclusive session in Islamabad on Saturday night. And in a Fox Business interview, Trump reiterated he sees the war as “close to over”.
Trump told ABC News that he isn’t thinking about extending the ceasefire beyond its April 22 expiration, predicting “an amazing two days ahead”.
The president also didn’t commit to whether the US would remain in negotiations to secure a deal with Iran or instead withdraw military forces without a peace plan.
“It could end either way, but I think a deal is preferable because then they can rebuild,” Trump said. “They really do have a different regime now. No matter what, we took out the radicals.”
See also: Israel hails Lebanon talks despite slim odds of breakthrough
In the meantime, the US is pressing ahead with a naval blockade of Hormuz to curb the Islamic Republic’s oil exports, as the battle for control of the strategic waterway intensifies. At the same time, more than 20 commercial ships that weren’t visiting Iranian ports have transited the strait in the last day, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The US has arranged for 24-hour enforcement of the blockade with an armada of more than 12 vessels. That includes destroyers and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship, accompanied by F-35 jets and Marine vessels for boarding operations, as well as the USS Canberra littoral combat ship that could help clear sea mines.
The vessels are concentrated in the Gulf of Oman instead of hugging Iran’s coast or actually in the Strait of Hormuz, a US official said. Dispersal across the Gulf gives the US more ocean area to maneuver and re-supply. It also allows the US to avoid any Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles, and to board vessels using Marines if necessary, the official said.
See also: US, Philippines eye record military drills next week as war fears grow
The Trump administration will allow a waiver temporarily authorising the purchase of certain Iranian crude oil to expire this weekend, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday. A US sanctions waiver authorising purchases of Russian crude lapsed last week. Those efforts were aimed at easing the global energy shock from the six-week war.
Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the strait to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talks, according to a person familiar who sought anonymity to discuss Tehran’s private deliberations.
Asian stocks rose on Wednesday and oil edged lower on optimism about the talks. Brent crude fell for a second day to US$94.50 ($120.17) a barrel. Still, retail US gasoline and diesel prices are at their highest seasonal levels ever, a pain point for consumers ahead of summer travel.
The war has damaged Gulf energy infrastructure and disrupted oil and gas supplies beyond the region, rattling markets and triggering fears of a global inflation crisis. About a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas was shipped through Hormuz before the start of the war.
Surging prices of products such as jet fuel and gasoline are already squeezing consumers, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday, pointing towards the first annual decline in global oil demand since 2020.
The latest push for talks shows the two sides haven’t given up on diplomacy despite the failure of the initial Pakistan negotiations.
US Vice President JD Vance at an event on Tuesday said while there was progress in those talks, Trump doesn’t want to make “a small deal, he wants to make the grand bargain”.
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Switzerland has offered to support diplomatic efforts, having hosted earlier talks on Iran’s nuclear programme before the war began in late February.
Fighting has largely paused since the truce, except in Lebanon, where Israel continues operations against Iran-backed Hezbollah. Talks between Israel and Lebanon began on Tuesday in Washington to address the parallel conflict, which has killed more than 2,000 people, according to Lebanese authorities. The discussions are separate from US-Iran negotiations and are part of a broader effort to curb Iran’s influence through Hezbollah, a US official said.
Israel’s spy chief pledged more covert efforts to try to topple Iran’s government, suggesting the countries’ conflict will continue even if the US agrees to a peace deal. “Our mission has yet to be completed,” David Barnea, the head of Mossad, said in a speech.
Trump’s blockade of Hormuz represents a further test of the ceasefire’s durability. The US said six merchant vessels complied with instructions to turn around and re-enter an Iranian port during the first day of enforcement.
A ship under US sanctions and linked to China sailed out of Hormuz and into the Gulf of Oman, testing the blockade. It wasn’t clear if the Rich Starry, a medium-range tanker, visited Iranian ports before its transit.
Disruptions pose risks for China, Iran’s largest oil customer, which has called for a ceasefire. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he discussed the issue with Trump, highlighting the strain on major importers. The White House confirmed the call without providing further details.
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