Kishore Mahbubani, the former Singapore Permanent Representative to the United Nations, sees no winner emerging should a direct conflict between the US and China break out, but rather, a “loser and a loser”.
Speaking at CNBC’s inaugural Converge Live summit on March 13, he notes that while the possibility of this doomsday scenario transpiring is highly unlikely, both superpowers will continue in their joust for primacy of the world stage.
“I think at the end of the day, each side has their own priorities. For China, the number one issue is how they deal with Taiwan. If they can get assurance that the Trump administration is not pushing for independence on Taiwan, that's a big win for China. And on the other side, if Donald Trump can get China to open up its market, accept more American exports and possibly even invest more in the US, then it's possible to have a win-win trade deal,” says Mahbubani.
He adds: “And it's curious that, in theory, Donald Trump being right of centre should be more anti-China, but there's more likely to have a deal between Trump and China, rather than [between] Biden and China. While in theory, Trump is very negative on China, in practice, he might be willing to do a big trade deal with China.”
He emphasises that the Americans would be “foolish” to underestimate the Chinese, due to the latter often playing “the long game”. “By the way, the Chinese clearly want to have a deal with the United States, they don't want this contest to carry on. So that's why it's important to understand that as you look at this game, look at the entire global picture.”
The US president, who initially proposed a 60% tariff on Chinese goods during his presidential campaign, has since settled on a more realistic 20%, while neighbouring Canada and Mexico have each been slapped with a 25% tariff on imports.
See also: New Canadian PM Mark Carney says there’s progress in US trade talks
“In the case of Canada, Canada has no choice. I think 70% of its exports go to the US, and you know, I see the Canada-US thing settling down in a while,” says Mahbubani.
The veteran diplomat also mentioned the changing relationship between the US and Europe, which has historically been warm and buttressed by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).
He explains: “The Europeans are beginning to realise, especially after what's happening vis-a-vis Ukraine, that in some ways, they've got to develop their own options. Because, to put it very bluntly, they've been slapped in the face by the US. The way that Donald Trump treated [Volodymyr] Zelensky was quite a shock to the rest of the world, and Europe realises that if it wants to continue with Ukraine, it's going to be on its own.”
See also: Canada’s new leader could reset strained US ties, say ministers
Despite the filmed unpleasant interaction between Trump, vice-president JD Vance and Ukrainian president Zelensky, Mahbubani insists that at the very least, America’s 47th president is not a warmonger.
He concludes: “He doesn't like wars, which is wonderful. He doesn't like wars and that's really positive. Because clearly at the end of the day, it was Trump that negotiated a ceasefire in Gaza, and now it’s him trying to get a ceasefire in Ukraine. On that front, if he pushes for the stoppage or elimination of wars, I would say that's a positive contribution.”
