(March 30): US President Donald Trump repeated threats to destroy Iranian energy assets if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened soon, raising fears of a further escalation in the war after American troops arrived in the region.
The US “is in serious discussions” with Iran to end military operations, Trump said in a social media post on Monday. But if a deal isn’t reached and Hormuz reopened, “we will conclude our lovely “stay” in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric-generating plants, oil wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinisation plants!)”.
Trump has regularly vacillated between saying a deal with Iran is close and warning the country he’s prepared to up the military tempo. Iran has consistently said peace talks aren’t progressing and has signalled it can carry on waging war for much longer.
The US leader’s comments came as Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes with the war continuing into a second month. The conflict is threatening to cause severe economic damage around the world, with the closure of the critical Hormuz waterway choking supplies of energy, fertilisers and other critical commodities.
Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi on Monday issued an appeal to Trump to end the conflict, saying only the US president is capable of doing so. He warned of the dangers of rising energy prices on the economies of developing nations, but also political stability.
Brent crude — on track for a record monthly increase — surged 2.5% to about US$115 ($148.33) a barrel in Monday trading.
See also: The war with Iran may be ushering in a new nuclear age
The US military said over the weekend that about 3,500 sailors and Marines have arrived in the Middle East on an amphibious assault ship, raising fears of an escalation in the conflict rather than an imminent switch to diplomacy. The Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group is also carrying fighter aircraft.
The Israel Defense Forces said it’s carrying out airstrikes on Iran a day after attacks resulted in power outages in the capital, Tehran, and nearby areas. Iran said it’s striking Israel, which reported a strike on the Bazan oil refinery in Haifa, although not to production facilities.
The United Arab Emirates issued multiple alerts overnight and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported a number of interceptions of drones and missiles.
See also: Iran and Israel keep up attacks as Trump extends deadline
Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday that an agreement to end fighting could come soon, claiming that Iran “gave” the US most of the 15 demands it had issued, without offering specifics.
Iran suggested that isn’t the case, having publicly rejected the 15-point proposal last week.
“The demands conveyed to us have been excessive and illogical,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said in press conference on Monday, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.
Iran has insisted on its own conditions to end hostilities, issuing a five-point plan that includes demands — such as the payment of war reparations — that Trump and Israel are unlikely to accept. Tehran has also called for an end to the war on all fronts, a likely reference to Israel’s parallel operation against Iran-allied Hezbollah in Lebanon.
More than 4,750 people have been killed so far, roughly three-quarters of them in Iran.
Fears of a prolonged military campaign in the Middle East have pushed stocks lower, with equities in Asia and emerging markets declining on Monday. Oil’s advance since the start of the year is now around 90%, stoking expectations of slower growth and faster inflation worldwide.
Iran’s weekend strikes on Middle Eastern aluminum plants are threatening to send a fragile market into crisis, raising the prospect of record prices for the metal used in everything from airplanes to food packaging and solar panels.
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In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said he wants to “take the oil in Iran”, which would involve occupying the country’s main export hub of Kharg Island, also the location of an Iranian naval base. That would mark a major escalation of the conflict, involving US ground troops.
“Our men are waiting for American soldiers to enter on the ground,” Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said, according to Tasnim.
Trump is also considering a military operation to seize Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium, three diplomatic officials briefed on the matter told Bloomberg News earlier this month.
Pakistan said it is ready to facilitate peace talks between the US and Iran in the coming days after hosting a meeting of foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Egypt. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who didn’t elaborate on the timeline or the likelihood of such talks taking place, called for creating the right conditions for structured discussions between the parties.
Trump has pushed for negotiations as US gas prices soar in a congressional election year. He twice delayed a deadline for Tehran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows — or face the destruction of its power plants.
The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Sunday that Iran’s Khondab heavy water plant sustained severe damage from US-Israeli attacks. Heavy water is used in nuclear power and for weapons-grade plutonium.
One stated aim of the war is to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities, with Trump saying that the Islamic Republic was getting close to making a bomb before the American military campaign began. Iran has repeatedly said its atomic programme has a civilian nature and that it wasn’t pursuing nuclear weapons.
A strike on the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia last Friday wounded at least 15 US troops and damaged a US E-3 Sentry, according to a person familiar with the matter. The aircraft, which costs about US$300 million, is equipped with radar to track drones and missiles. Unverified photos showed its tail severed, rendering it unflyable.
The war has left over 4,750 people dead, according to governments and non-governmental agencies. Around three-quarters of fatalities have been in Iran, while more than 1,100 people have died in Lebanon, where more than a million people have been displaced. Dozens of people have been killed in Israel and Arab Gulf states.
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