(April 17): US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone for prospects that the US and Iran could clinch a permanent ceasefire as the two sides discuss an extended truce ahead of its expiration next week.
“It’s looking very good that we are going to make a deal with Iran, and it’s going to be a good deal,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Thursday. Talks between Washington and Tehran could resume this weekend, he said.
Trump claimed, without evidence, that Iran had agreed to terms it has long resisted, including giving up ambitions for a nuclear weapon and turning over nuclear material. The deal would also include “free oil” and an opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump added. Tehran has not publicly confirmed it’s made those concessions.
Trump’s stated expectations of a quick resolution run counter to some Gulf Arab and European leaders, who predict that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be brokered.
The US president said he didn’t expect he would have to extend the two-week ceasefire in order to reach a deal, predicting a resolution would be made “fairly soon”, but that if he needed to, he would.
West Texas Intermediate dropped towards US$93 ($118.39) a barrel, down more than 3% this week, while Brent settled above US$99 on Thursday. Real-world oil prices remain well above futures as near-term supplies are scarce. Dated Brent, the world’s most important gauge of physical prices, is trading around US$116 a barrel.
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Earlier on Thursday, the president announced that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire, a move that offers to ease tensions more broadly in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in a video message that he had agreed to the truce, in a bid to advance talks towards a “historic peace agreement” with Lebanon.
Trump said the truce was set to begin at 5pm New York time. He also directed Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Dan Caine “to work with Israel and Lebanon to achieve a lasting peace”.
Israel has been hammering Iranian proxy Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, a military campaign that threatened to derail the separate ceasefire with Iran. Trump’s announcement on Thursday made no mention of Hezbollah.
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Trump said he spoke with his Lebanese counterpart, Joseph Aoun, and Netanyahu before declaring the ceasefire. In a subsequent post, Trump said he would invite both leaders to the White House for talks. Later he said that visit could take place within a week.
Separately, Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, travelled to Iran this week as his nation seeks to mediate a longer truce between Washington and Tehran. Pakistan hosted high-level talks between US and Iranian officials last weekend — discussions that failed to yield a breakthrough amid the six-week war. Munir was greeted by Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
Trump said on Thursday that he “might” travel to Pakistan if a deal with Iran is clinched.
“They have agreed to almost everything,” Trump said. “They got to get to the table with a pen.”
The US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive talks. Neither side wants to resume fighting, said another person familiar with the discussions.
Comments from both Iranian and US officials on Thursday suggest the sides remain far apart on key issues, but the ceasefire with Lebanon could provide fresh momentum. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who took part in the Pakistan talks, had earlier said a permanent ceasefire must cover the fighting in Lebanon.
Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be brokered and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that time frame, according to officials familiar with the matter from those regions.
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The leaders want an immediate reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz and raised the risk of a global food crisis if it remains closed past next month, said the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing private talks.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for energy supplies, remains contentious, with a US naval blockade now into its fourth day. Iran, which has effectively shuttered the strait since the start of the war, is meanwhile pressing ahead with plans to charge ships for transit even after the war is over.
The UK and France will host a summit with about 40 nations to discuss setting up a naval force that would ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The deployment of such a mission remains far off given that European leaders have said they want to wait for the US and Iran to agree to a longer-term agreement.
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the military is ready to resume combat “at the push of a button”, whenever Trump gives the order, and warned Iran not to make poor choices.
Fourteen vessels have turned around in three days rather than test the US naval blockade on Iranian-linked ships crossing the strait, US Central Command said.
Iran sees a prolonging of the US blockade as “a prelude to a breach of the ceasefire”, said Ali Abdollahi, the commander of Iran’s joint military headquarters, according to state TV.
The US is sending thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in the coming days to pressure Tehran into making a deal, The Washington Post reported, citing officials it didn’t name.
While Israel joined the US in halting attacks on Iran last week, its military has kept up the campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, complicating the broader push for peace.
Netanyahu said he told the Israeli military, which invaded Lebanon last month, to expand the buffer zone it’s seeking to establish inside the country.
Talks between Israel and the government in Beirut, which has little sway over Hezbollah, had taken place on Tuesday in Washington. That conflict has killed more than 2,000 people and displaced a million, according to Lebanese authorities.
Trump has vacillated between declaring the conflict with Iran nearly won and threatening escalation, while questions remain about the issues that drove the US and Israel to launch the latest bombardment — chief among them concerns over Iran’s nuclear programme.
Iran has said it isn’t pursuing a weapons programme. The country’s right to peaceful use of nuclear energy “cannot be revoked”, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Wednesday. However, the level and type of enrichment are “negotiable”, he added.
Even with a US-Iran deal, restoring Gulf energy flows fully may take weeks or even months, adding to fears of global inflation and a slowdown in economic growth. There are also concerns about disruptions to other supplies, particularly fertilisers, where shortages could hurt food output and raise prices.
The United Nations is ready to set up a corridor to move fertiliser through Hormuz, though it hinges on a political agreement, according to a top official.
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