Far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s presidential ambitions were dealt a potential death blow after she was convicted of embezzlement by a French court and barred from running in the next election in 2027.
Judges at the Paris criminal court found Le Pen and her National Rally party guilty of diverting millions of euros in European Union funds to finance activities related to their domestic agenda.
Le Pen was sentenced to two years in prison, with two more suspended, and given an immediate five-year election ban, complicating her ambitions of taking over from Emmanuel Macron in 2027. Judges suggested the two years could be served under electronic surveillance.
While an appeals court decision before the next election isn’t out of the question, if either side pursues a challenge to Monday’s outcome, it’s unlikely given the complexity of the case and number of defendants.
Le Pen, who was a top contender for the 2027 presidential election according to recent polls, had said the prosecution was seeking her “political death” in making the request for an outright election ban during trial hearings.
“The ineligibility verdict probably means Le Pen’s political career is over,” said Marta Lorimer, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University and a visiting fellow at the London School of Economics.
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The ruling may open a power vacuum within the French far right, which Le Pen worked for years to bring into the mainstream of national politics. A potential successor is National Rally party chief Jordan Bardella, who according to polls conducted ahead of the court ruling could be a viable option for claiming the presidency in 2027.
Markets seemed to take the news in stride. The spread between French and German 10-year yields, a closely watched measure of risk, was two basis points wider at 73. The move was in line with other European government bond spreads amid the global risk-off sentiment, with the equivalent Italian bond spread posting a similar move.
France’s CAC 40 stock index added to losses in the wake of the decision, sliding 2%.
