(March 3): The US-Israeli war on Iran reverberated across the Middle East and global markets on Tuesday, as oil and gas prices surged and Tehran vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane.
Both the US and Israeli militaries continued to bombard Iran’s capital. The US embassy in Riyadh was attacked by two drones, causing limited damage, and Israel sent soldiers into southern Lebanon, where the Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia is based.
The escalation came as the US sent conflicting messages about how long the war might last, and an adviser to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander told state TV that forces “will set fire to any ship attempting to pass through” the Strait of Hormuz.
China, which buys most of Iran’s oil, urged “all sides” to ensure the safe passage of ships through the waterway, where traffic has effectively halted.
Global benchmark Brent rose above US$81 a barrel, after rising about 7% on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate was near US$74. European gas prices surged as much as 32% on Tuesday morning.
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US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth rejected the idea of an “endless” war with Iran. But President Donald Trump later said there was no fixed timeline. Both refused to rule out putting American boots on the ground, though Trump told NewsNation he didn’t think it would be necessary. Iran’s Red Crescent has reported more than 530 people killed in the Islamic Republic so far. Six US soldiers have died in the conflict and about a dozen people in Israel.
“Whatever the time is, it’s okay — whatever it takes,” Trump said on Monday. “Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks. But we have capability to go far longer than that.”
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The US military said in a Tuesday post on X that it destroyed “Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities, Iranian air defence capabilities, missile and drone launch sites, and military airfields.” Iran acknowledged overnight that its Natanz nuclear facilities had been attacked.
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it’s conducting more airstrikes in Tehran, targeting the command centers of the Islamic Republic’s Interior Security and Ministry of Intelligence. The IDF blamed those institutions for “suppressing protests against the regime through violent measures.”
On Monday, blasts were also heard across Israel, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Speaking on national television on Monday night, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran has no quarrel with neighbouring countries but is “taking on the American soldiers stationed there”. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have strongly criticised Iran for widening the conflict to their territories.
The State Department urged Americans to leave countries across the Middle East, citing “serious safety risks” amid dangers from the war. It suggested US citizens in more than a dozen countries, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, depart by “available commercial transportation”.
The US also said three fighter jets crashed in Kuwait due to an apparent friendly-fire incident, with aircrew ejecting safely.
Qatar and the UAE are lobbying allies to help persuade Trump to reach a diplomatic off-ramp and to keep the conflict short, according to people familiar with the matter. Italy’s defence minister told lawmakers on Monday that Gulf countries have expressed the need to strengthen their air defence capabilities, requesting Italy’s help with anti-drone and anti-aircraft systems.
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The Trump administration will soon roll out a programme to help mitigate rising energy costs, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Washington before heading into a briefing for US lawmakers. He said the campaign would only intensify.
“I’m not going to give away the details of our tactical efforts, but the hardest hits are yet to come from the US military,” Rubio said.
US justifications for the initial strikes have been varied, with officials citing regime change, the threat of Iran’s nuclear programme, its military capablility and the domestic crackdown on protesters.
On Monday, Rubio said the campaign was aimed at destroying Iran’s ballistic missile programme and its navy, in order to prevent threats to global shipping. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a social media post that it was partly meant “to create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny”.
US intelligence officials have provided the administration with analyses of multiple potential scenarios following an attack on Iran, highlighting the uncertainty of what could unfold next.
Trump has called on the Iranian people to “seize this moment” and “take back your country”, but it’s unlikely that any political opposition group will try to seize power.
Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei said on Sunday that he hopes a successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader who was killed at the weekend, will be elected “within the next few days”.
The US-Israeli operation began after three rounds of talks with Iran over a deal to restrict Tehran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Omani mediators said the discussions had been fruitful before the bombing started.
The United Nations nuclear watchdog said on Monday it’s frustrated by the collapse of diplomacy, adding that satellite images show Iran’s nuclear sites have been largely spared during the current round of strikes. The US and Israel targeted the facilities in a 12-day assault in June.
In the Islamic Republic, state media reported strikes on military and civilian sites, including one that killed over 140 people at a school in Hormozgan. More than 550 people were killed in attacks across the country, according to Iran’s Red Crescent.
Nearly all civilian air traffic is closed across the Gulf after Dubai’s main airport, the world’s busiest aviation hub, was hit. Emirates and Etihad Airways are planning to resume limited operations as the carriers seek to ease some of the congestion.
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