(April 6): Canadian consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in almost a year as the war in Iran, which has sent energy prices soaring and stoked worries about persistent inflation, entered its sixth week.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Consumer Confidence Index fell to 46.93 in the week ended April 3, while the expectations index extended its four-week loss to almost 10 points. A reading below 50 indicates net negative views. It was the lowest reading for both indexes since May 2025, when consumers and businesses were still digesting the initial shock of US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
“All indicators in the Bloomberg Nanos Index showed negative pressure,” Nanos Research chief data scientist Nik Nanos said. “The biggest drop in sentiment had to do with the proportion of Canadians who thought the economy would get stronger in the next six months.”
Just 15% of Canadians see a stronger economy six months from now, compared with 27% four weeks ago.
The sharp drop in consumer sentiment over the last four weeks is a sign that the war in the Middle East may already be squeezing Canadians.
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High oil prices risk hurting households and businesses, even while raising revenue from energy exports. The Bank of Canada said last week that the price shock creates “potential for weaker near-term growth and upside risks to inflation,” but that it’s too early to assess the war’s lasting impact on growth.
Canada’s labour market has also weakened, shedding more than 100,000 jobs in January and February, while the rate of food inflation was the highest among G-7 countries. The pending review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement — a deal Trump has called “irrelevant” — is another risk to the economy.
The gloomy sentiment reading is a reversal from two months ago, when confidence hit its highest level since before Trump first threatened to impose tariffs on Canada. At the time, the positive sentiment was largely driven by young people’s upbeat mood after several months where the economy posted strong job gains and continued decreases in housing prices.
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In the week ended April 3, just 13% of survey respondents said the state of their personal finances had improved over the prior year, compared with 15% four weeks ago. Nearly 59% of Canadians felt at least somewhat secure in their jobs — a slight decrease — while 31% of respondents saw real estate values rising over the next six months.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index is based on a four-week rolling average of interviews with about 1,000 Canadians and measures perceptions related to personal finances, job security, economic strength and real estate values. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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