(June 1): Emerging Asian equities rose to a record, propelled by continuing enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade that’s bolstered global stocks despite the Iran war.
MSCI’s emerging markets index climbed as much as 2% to an all-time high on Monday, driven by AI leaders in South Korea and Taiwan. A similar gauge for emerging-market currencies edged lower as oil prices rose and the dollar gained amid lack of clarity on a ceasefire deal between the US and Iran.
“Despite the numerous risks lurking on the horizon, the AI boom powers on,” Moody’s Analytics economists led by Denise Cheok wrote in a note. The tailwind from the sector has boosted growth in parts of Southeast Asia involved in the tech ecosystem but the concentration in a single segment poses risks from a sudden drop in AI demand, they wrote.
South Korea’s Kospi index marked a record high, led by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and LG Electronics. Software stocks in Asia gained after Workday and Google Cloud announced an expanded partnership to further integrate AI agents. Markets in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand are shut for a holiday.
Asian currencies largely traded lower as Brent crude prices advanced, with the status of a peace deal to end the Middle East conflict remaining uncertain. The US and Iran traded messages over the weekend seeking changes to a draft agreement that would extend a ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz, but it was unclear if the sides were making much progress.
See also: Emerging markets lead rate hikes as Iran war stokes inflation
Elevated oil prices have strained the external finances of several Asian nations which are net fuel importers. That’s dragged down their currencies, with Indonesia’s rupiah and India’s rupee the worst performers so far this year. South Korea’s won led losses on Monday as foreign investors sold local stocks amid their rise to a fresh record.
The strength in equities has not translated to currency strength and Asia-Pacific currencies are weighed by a stronger dollar and rebound in crude oil prices, said Wee Khoon Chong, Asia Pacific market strategist at BNY. “Terms of trade pressure has been the biggest drag for many APAC currencies of late.”
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