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Speculators turn most bearish on the US dollar since September 2024

Anya Andrianova / Bloomberg
Anya Andrianova / Bloomberg • 2 min read
Speculators turn most bearish on the US dollar since September 2024
Both one-week and one-month risk reversals on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index point to expectations of further losses in the greenback into and out of the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on May 7. Photo: Bloomberg
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Speculative traders have become more bearish on the dollar than at any time since last September as concerns about US assets continue to circulate despite a recovery in the equity markets.

Data out Friday shows that hedge funds, asset managers and other speculators increased their bets against the dollar in the week through Tuesday, April 29, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Those bets have been building for several weeks, and the traders tracked by the CFTC now hold, as a group, a roughly US$17 billion position tied to the dollar weakening.

On Friday, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%, leaving it down for the fourth week out of the last five.

US President Donald Trump's policies on trade have sent shock waves through financial markets and undermined the greenback's status as a safe-haven, pushing traders to bet against the dollar and allocate funds away from US assets after years of piling in.

Even as many markets have recovered in recent days on signs of trade deals and economic strength, the "sell America" theme appears to remain intact and the dollar gauge is now down more than 6% for the year.

See also: Taiwan forwards near most extreme in decades show US dollar pain

Both one-week and one-month risk reversals on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index point to expectations of further losses in the greenback into and out of the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on May 7. Traders are still paying more for put options that bet on a weaker US currency, than calls that look for the greenback to rise in the coming week and month.

On Friday, stronger-than-expected US employment data Friday showed tariff uncertainty hasn't hit the nation's jobs market yet, prompting traders to trim bets on imminent interest-rate cuts.

Still, traders sent money into currencies outside the US on Friday after China signaled an openness to tariff talks with the US. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were among best performers in the Group of 10 Friday, advancing about 1%.

See also: Hong Kong's lesson from 1967: Fight for flows

"It seems that market is expressing some optimism on the China headlines," said Aroop Chatterjee, managing director for macro strategy and emerging markets at Wells Fargo in New York. "It's clear that dollar longs against Asia FX are being unwound."

Chart: Bloomberg

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