(July 8): Bitcoin tumbled as renewed geopolitical tensions rattled digital asset markets, eclipsing what had been a muted reaction to Strategy Inc’s latest sale of the token earlier in the week.
The largest cryptocurrency fell more than 3% to around US$61,691 on Wednesday as tensions flared up once more between the US and Iran. The selloff picked up steam after US President Donald Trump said the tentative ceasefire with Iran was over, raising the prospect of renewed military conflict between the two countries. Other cryptocurrencies, including Ether and Solana, also fell.
Bitcoin later pared some of its losses and was trading at around US$62,100 in early morning New York.
“Bitcoin took a quick dive after Trump’s comments, as the market frets about further fuel-linked inflation and potential rate hikes to counter it,” said Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets. “We expect some support around US$61,500, but the market is likely to remain volatile as the geopolitical and macro situations develop.”
Brent crude advanced nearly 6% to US$78.55 a barrel. Stocks extended declines, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropping as much as 1% and India’s Nifty 50 Index sliding 1.5%. S&P 500 futures slid 1%.
See also: Strategy sells US$216 mil of bitcoin as it begins overhaul
Trump’s comments came after the US carried out strikes on Iran, which followed attacks on commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides accused the other of violating the ceasefire.
Bitcoin had been looking stronger in July after a 20% drop in June, its worst month in four years. The token is up about 5.5% so far this month.
The cryptocurrency had been relatively resilient after Strategy — the Michael Saylor-founded company that has become the token’s largest corporate buyer — disclosed a US$216 million Bitcoin sale on Monday. Markets barely reacted to the news, a far cry from last month, when Strategy’s disclosure of its first Bitcoin sale since 2022 precipitated a selloff.
See also: Trump reports at least US$1.4 bil in 2025 crypto earnings
“A forced seller of that size not denting the market is a real signal worth noting,” said Sean Rose, an account executive at market intelligence firm Glassnode.
Large holders
Some long-term Bitcoin holders had also resumed buying before the latest Middle East flare-up, adding as many as 31,800 tokens per day to their holdings from June 20 to July 6, according to Glassnode.
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, meanwhile, have added more than US$500 million in three consecutive days of inflows. Investors had pulled more than US$4.5 billion from the funds in June, their worst month since launching in early 2024.
Still, Bitcoin remains down more than 50% since reaching a high above US$126,000 last October. The upside, however, may be lower risk. Glassnode’s Bitcoin Risk Index fell to 0.56 on July 6 from its maximum reading of 1 at the start of the month, which Rose said is “a real de-risking signal".
Another sign is emerging. Bitcoin has been shaken in recent months by long-term holders taking profit when the token starts to recover but there are signs that opportunities to do so may be drying up. Net unrealised profit/loss now sits at 0.17, according to a report from Bitrue Research Institute, suggesting most Bitcoin holders have little profit left to take.
As for Strategy, traders may no longer be viewing its decisions with the same apprehension after having withstood two recent sales. The company has also announced structural changes, which give it broader authority to preserve liquidity and sell Bitcoin when issuing new stock becomes less attractive. It also greenlit the repurchase of US$1 billion of its preferred securities and an additional US$1 billion of common stock.
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By reorganising its balance sheet, Strategy “may have finally gotten out of its own way", Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, wrote in a report published Monday.
The question remains whether Bitcoin’s brittle recovery this month can hold, particularly as geopolitical tensions continue to unsettle global markets. Financial institutions that have been drawn to digital assets are now increasingly looking at stablecoins and other uses of blockchain as ways of growing their presence in the sector instead.
“Institutions are not necessarily looking to take more directional exposure to tokens right now, but they are increasingly interested in using blockchain rails to make financial markets more efficient, programmable, and globally accessible,” said Boris Alergant, an executive at Babylon Labs.
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