The group had also submitted bids for sites at Plantation Close (EC), Bayshore, Dunearn, Chuan Grove and Kallang Close, albeit without success.
This “sustained level of participation” highlights management’s confidence in the Singapore residential market and its capabilities in bringing projects to market, writes Foo in a May 28 research note. “This is evidenced by CDL’s record residential sales of $4.35 billion in 2025 (up 46% y-o-y), driven by healthy take-up across its launches.”
Stronger development margins
Foo thinks CDL’s development margins “could trend stronger than expected”. The developer’s residential launches over the past two years (such as Lumina Grand, Norwood Grand and Zyon Grand) were built on sites that were acquired at lower land costs, notes Foo.
See also: MOP for ECs to be doubled to 10 years, with greater priority for first-time buyers
“Robust sell-through rates imply stronger cash flows and lower funding needs,” adds Foo. “We believe this could drive development margin expansion and returns above underwriting assumptions in the near-term.”
Additionally, the interest rate environment has eased significantly, notes Foo, with the Singapore Overnight Rate Average (Sora) hovering around 1% since these projects were underwritten. “We believe CDL stands to benefit from higher-than-expected development margins in the coming quarters.”
Every 100 basis point (bp) decline in project borrowing costs could drive a 2 to 3 percentage point (ppt) uplift in CDL’s development margins, according to DBS’s calculations. “While land prices have been gradually rising, margins should remain relatively healthy in the low-double-digit range,” says Foo.
See also: JTC launches 90,202 sq ft industrial site at 6 Tuas Avenue 14 for tender
EC rule changes
The Ministry of National Development (MND) tightened rules around the purchase of new EC units on May 8, including doubling the minimum occupation period (MOP) to 10 years.
The new rules only apply to EC projects on government land sales (GLS) sites with tender closing on or after May 8. This leaves CDL’s upcoming launches at Woodlands Drive 17 (EC) and Senja Close (EC) unaffected, as the land tenders were awarded in July and August 2025.
CDL’s two EC projects “are likely to sell well” as buyers may look to secure units before the tighter rules come into force, says Foo, pointing to the removal of the deferred payment scheme as a major change under the new framework.
The scheme allowed buyers to pay just 20% of the purchase price upfront and the remaining 80% when the project obtains its Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP). Now, all EC buyers will have to use the normal payment scheme, where buyers make progressive payments based on construction milestones.
“The EC market continues to see strong demand,” notes Foo, “underpinned by a compelling 20%-30% price discount to private new launches.”
‘Resilient’ sales
Foo expects “resilient sell-through rates” for CDL’s two EC projects and two condominium launches at Lakeside Drive and Tanjong Rhu Road.
“The Lakeside Drive site is located adjacent to Lakeside MRT Station and is well-positioned to benefit from the broader growth of the Jurong Lake District,” she writes. “The Tanjong Rhu Road site is close to East Coast Park… and sits between Tanjong Rhu MRT Station and Katong Park MRT Station.”
CDL’s continued focus on its core competency in residential development should serve as a key positive for the group, says Foo.
She has a “buy” call on CDL and an unchanged $12 target price, based on a 35% discount to revalued net asset value (RNAV).
CDL shares are up 4.5% year to date but down 0.5% over the past month.
Infographics: DBS Group Research
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