Singapore’s GDP growth averaged 4.3% y-o-y for the first three quarters of 2025. MTI says it is upgrading its 2025 GDP growth forecast to “around” 4% from 1.5% to 2.5% previously. The country’s GDP growth for 2026 is expected to come in at 1% to 3%, MTI adds.
As such, Maybank analysts Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee upgraded their 2025 GDP growth forecast for Singapore to 4.1% from 4%. They have also raised their 2026 forecast to 2.8% from 2.5%.
“Manufacturing and trade-related sectors will likely be bright spots in the final quarter, given surging electronics demand from the ongoing AI (artificial intelligence) boom,” the analysts write in their Nov 21 report.
Chua and Lee say Singapore’s “economy is firing on multiple cylinders” and that this will likely continue into 2026. Falling interest rates, as well as an AI and construction boom will help drive growth into 2026, Chua and Lee add.
See also: Singapore upgrades 2025 GDP growth forecast to ‘around’ 4% after better-than-expected 3Q2025
OCBC’s chief economist Selena Ling has also upgraded her 2025 GDP growth forecast for Singapore to 4% from 3.3%, and maintained her 2026 forecast at 1% to 3%. MTI’s upgraded 2025 GDP growth forecast implies that Singapore’s 4Q GDP could come in at around 3% y-o-y, says Ling in her Nov 21 report. Ling last upgraded her 2025 forecast to 3.3% on Nov 5 after September's industrial production figures stood higher than expected. In that report, she had highlighted the possibility of the official 2025 growth forecast range of 1.5% to 2.5% being upgraded.
To Ling, MTI’s 2026 growth forecast, at 1% to 3%, is in line with OCBC’s expectations. “This is predicated on slower growth in key trading partners as tariffs continue to weigh, albeit the assessment of the US economy and AI-related investment story remains relatively sanguine,” she adds.
“The recent volatility in the AI-related stocks suggest investor concerns about high valuations but the order pipeline appears to be positive based on anecdotal company feedback,” Ling says.
See also: Singapore’s equity market development programme through a sustainability lens
Similarly, RHB’s group chief economist, Barnabas Gan, and associate research analyst, Laalitha Raveenthar upgraded their 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4% from 3%, and raised their 2026 forecast to 3% from 2.6%.
Gan and Raveenthar’s revisions are driven by the better-than-expected 3Q GDP numbers, resilient manufacturing output and trade-related sectors, and improving global and domestic economic performance.
To this end, the RHB analysts expect Singapore’s external demand to “remain robust through 2026,” but add that their “growth outlook is not without risks.”
“We continue to monitor the possibility of an AI-driven bubble, which has recently led to a decline in global equities, and the race for rare earth supplies in 2026, which may introduce fresh geopolitical frictions,” Gan and Raveenthar say.
UOB’s associate economist Jester Koh has raised his 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.4% from 3.5%, and upgraded his 2026 forecast to 2.1% from 1.8%.
“AI-driven demand globally should continue to support Singapore’s electronics IP and exports, with positive spillovers to wholesale trade and transportation and storage sectors,” says Koh.
What other analysts are saying
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Nomura’s analysts Euben Paracuelles, Charnon Boonnuch, and Nathan Sribalasundaram maintained their GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 4% and 1.7% respectively. In their note, the analysts say they see “significant upside risks” to their forecast because of the “sustained tech upcycle” which they expect to continue into 2026.
DBS’s senior economist Han Teng Chua has maintained his GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 4% and 1.8% respectively, as he expects prospects for Singapore’s trade-related sectors “to be restrained in 2026.”
“Global trade and external demand will likely feel the drag from the lagged impact of higher US tariffs, with additional risks posed by further sectoral duties, such as those on semiconductors, in the coming months,” Chua says.
Similarly, Bank of America Global Research (BofA) analysts Kai Wei Ang and Rahul Bajoria maintained their GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The economists say in their note on Nov 21 that Singapore’s 3Q GDP “was not a surprise.” They add that MTI’s revised 2025 GDP growth forecast at 4% implies 4Q GDP “pulling back mildly” by around 0.5% q-o-q.
Zavier Wong, a market analyst at eToro, says while Q3 GDP numbers are stronger-than-expected, it “doesn’t erase the softer patches in consumer-facing areas like F&B, which continued to contract.”
“The very fact that MTI upgraded its 2025 forecast while simultaneously projecting only 1% - 3% growth tells its own story. It suggests that while the country is riding today’s upswing well, policymakers remain wary of next year’s outlook,” Wong says.
