Floating Button
Home Capital Investing ideas

Market uncertainty keeps STI rangebound around 5,000 level but nudges SGX to new highs

The Edge Singapore
The Edge Singapore • 4 min read
Market uncertainty keeps STI rangebound around 5,000 level but nudges SGX to new highs
SGX is a direct beneficiary of efforts to revitalise the equity market and increase wealth allocation to Singapore assets / Photo: Albert Chua of The Edge Singapore
Font Resizer
Share to Whatsapp
Share to Facebook
Share to LinkedIn
Scroll to top
Follow us on Facebook and join our Telegram channel for the latest updates.

For more than a month, investors around the world have been fretting over the White House’s U-turns and the ever-looming threat of geopolitical contagion. As they buy or sell more quickly in response to the latest headlines, stock exchanges, which levy a fee on each trade, have become the clear winners amid the volatility.

Here in Singapore, the benchmark Straits Times Index was tightly held near the 5,000 mark as investors wrestle with themselves while the White House occupant talks to himself. Amid this, the Singapore Exchange Group (SGX), one of the index’s 30 component stocks, has seen its share price reach new highs. Nonetheless, analysts find other reasons to like this stock.

“The bourse is a direct beneficiary of efforts to revitalise the equity market and increase wealth allocation to Singapore assets. Higher IPOs, regulatory shifts, and the launch of crypto perpetuals are among the recent initiatives. These should lead to volume strength and earnings,” says JP Morgan Harsh Wardhan Modi in his April 3 note, where he not only kept his “overweight” call but has also raised his target price from $20 to $22.

For context, Modi’s growing optimism about Singapore Exchange came amid JP Morgan turning more cautious on several other key Asean financial stocks. For example, after famously calling $70 for DBS Group Holdings last November, JP Morgan has lowered its target price for the region’s largest bank to just $63, citing risks of weaker asset quality and a lower net interest margin, which would “postpone” the higher valuation multiples previously seen. “Yet, capital return at the bank should remain intact. We expect the bank to pay $3.5 per share in dividends in FY2026,” says Modi.

He has similarly trimmed his target price for Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC) from $20.50 to $20 and issued a “tactical” downgrade from “neutral” to “underweight”. “We expect the bank to focus on capital conservation, rather than increasing payout this year, which will be a catalyst for underperformance in the near term. Our medium-term outlook for OCBC stays steady,” says Modi.

On the other hand, SGX, says Modi, offers strong earnings visibility and limited mark-to-market and balance sheet risks, with a net cash position and gross Debt/Ebitda of 0.8 times, which means SGX can sustain dividends and leverage up for inorganic growth if required. SGX has already guided to a consistent increase in its dividend per share over the next three years. Yet, payouts remain in the 70% range. “We see the possibility of the bourse increasing dividends beyond guidance as growth comes through,” says Modi.

See also: Oiltek’s spectacular run-up shows up mispricing at parent companies’ level

Bank of America has also turned more bullish on SGX, albeit from a lower base. In their April 1 note, analysts Sukriti Bansal and Aiden Chionh upgraded the stock from “underperform” to “neutral”, along with a higher target price of $20.50, up from just $14.70 previously.

The more upbeat view takes into account improving FY2026 profit growth expectations of 14% y-o-y, up from 11% previously; increasingly diversified earnings contributions, and sustained visibility on dividends. On the other hand, the analysts flag that SGX’s valuations appear “stretched” and that two other key listed Singapore financial institutions under its coverage, United Overseas Bank (UOB) and OCBC, have relatively more attractive upside potential.

With higher turnover assumptions and slightly lower cost expectations, Bansal and Chionh have increased their EPS forecast by 5% per year through FY2028. Even so, they remain around 3% below consensus, preferring to be “relatively conservative” in their projections.

See also: Yangzijiang Maritime’s ‘unique’ business model captures shipping value chain

The pickup in trading turnover, from their perspective, comes from investors front-running the $6.5 billion Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP). “Together with Singapore’s safe-haven status, these factors have kept ‘Singapore Inc’ stocks resilient through the recent market turmoil,” suggest Bansal and Chionh.

They believe that over the past six to nine months, most of the cash‑equity uplift appears to have come from market‑cap expansion rather than from higher turnover velocity, and market breadth remains a concern. “The IPO pipeline and mid‑cap value‑unlock seem to be lagging the liquidity injections, raising risk that activity stays concentrated vs broad‑based, which could delay benefits of EQDP,” caution Bansal and Chionh.

The analysts estimate that SGX should see between 15 and 20 listings this year, but warn that quality matters more than quantity. Singapore is also going to establish a so-called Global Listing Board to allow dual listings on both SGX and Nasdaq using the same prospectus. “We believe this would be positive if implemented successfully, but a turning point here would also be to have some of the larger Singapore internet names featuring on SGX, in addition to key large Singapore/Asean IPOs being dual listed,” add Bansal and Chionh, without specifically mentioning the likes of Sea and Grab Holdings.

×
The Edge Singapore
Download The Edge Singapore App
Google playApple store play
Keep updated
Follow our social media
© 2026 The Edge Publishing Pte Ltd. All rights reserved.