The bank was called a “rice-bowl friend” — present for the good times, and a coward on the run when things got tough.
More than 25 years working in China teaches one fundamental truth: relationships are everything. Yes, contracts and agreements matter, financial numbers matter, but in the final analysis, it’s trust and commitment that keep business going. The agreements are formally signed on paper, but they are cemented over many shared meals, late-night Moutai toasts, or perhaps strolls through Xiang Shan Park in the mountains outside Beijing.
For me, it is 25 years of showing up through the good times, the bad times and the uncertain ones.
If you want cheap and nasty because that’s all you are prepared to pay for, then that’s what you will get, along with the shabby transactional business practices that go with it.
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China is fuelled by relationships. Maintaining a strong supply chain is not about chasing the lowest price this month. Sustainable business is about investing in partnerships that will stand the test of time. The groups I work with are trusted allies who are just as committed to the future as I am. My interests are also their interests, and because they are on the ground, they can protect my interests more effectively than I can in China.
They are the ones who chase down the pirates, the copycats and those who falsely claim to have a business relationship with us.
Yes, there are a legion of horror stories that come out of business in China, but at heart, most of these date from the last century. These have created a mythical China that does not reflect modern business in China. Many of these stories are also built around exploitative relationships where China was sourced for its cheap and competent labour with no regard for building genuine partnerships.
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Today’s environment is about to become tougher than it was in the years following the GFC. Trump tariffs, shifting global policies, and geopolitical noise are significant challenges when doing business with China. Governments posture, policies shift and the language gets nastier, but the relationships built over the past five or 20 years remain strong.
It is unlikely that the China side will walk away from these relationships because once they are formed, they remain difficult to break. For businesses new to China, the next few weeks and months will be the first test of their commitment to China companies and their partners. China business isn’t about transactions—it’s about people.
If you want long-term, trustworthy commitments delivering quality products and services, then you have to commit to sharing and staying the path, particularly when things get tough.
It’s a lesson the Australian bank learned the hard way.
Technical outlook for the Shanghai market
The Shanghai Index has Trump and tariffs baked into the cake. The only real surprise would be if tariffs on China are smaller than forecast. This means there is a lower probability of a dramatic plunge after April 2.
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However, the sting has gone from the upwards momentum as the index tests the extremes of the uptrend line and the lower edges of the long-term group of moving averages in the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) indicator.
There are several nearby obstacles to an upside breakout. There are few support barriers to a downside breakout. Traders need to be prepared for both outcomes.
Taking the downside potential, the first confirmation of this is a sustained close below the value of the uptrend line. This excludes a temporary plunge when tariffs are confirmed. This overreaction shakes out the weak and frightened hands, and is followed by a rapid rebound rally.
A sustained fall has an initial support target near 3,232. This is the consolidation area formed after the initial breakout in January.
The historical support is lower, near 3,160. This defined the October 2024 and the January 2025 rebound points. In May 2024, it acted as a resistance feature, so the level has a well-established history of influence in the Shanghai Index.
When it comes to assessing the upside potential, the first powerful force is the resistance level near 3,435. Although this level was broken in November and December 2024, the level is a well-established resistance feature over many years. The current retreat from this level reinforces the significance of this level.
The second bullish force is the upward sloping trend line. This is created when people come into the market as buyers because they believe they are getting in early, and at a bargain price, on a new rising trend. This is a line of support.
This combination of an uptrend line and a resistance level is not a perfect example of an upsloping triangle, the base of the triangle is created over 3–5 days of trading. There is no vertical triangle base on the Shanghai index chart.
A move above the resistance level is bullish and has further resistance near 3,495. A move below the trend line is bearish and could move quickly towards 3,160.
Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for mainland Chinese media for two decades. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as “The Chart Man”. He is a former national board member of the Australia China Business Council
