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In an update, JP Morgan suggests a barbell approach to investing in REITs

The Edge Singapore
The Edge Singapore  • 4 min read
In an update, JP Morgan suggests a barbell approach to investing in REITs
JPM suggests a barbell approach, identifying the ultra-safe REITs as CICT, CLAR, FCT and KDC REIT.
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In a report dated April 13, JP Morgan analysts Mervin Song and Terence Khi recommend a barbell strategy when investing in S-REITs. A barbell approach to investing means putting your money at two extremes—very safe investments on the one hand and high-risk/high-reward investments on the other. It’s designed to balance stability with growth. Often, the ratio of safe investments to high-risk investments is in the ratio of 90 (for safe) vs 10.

For JP Morgan, this means combining the safe investments such as CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT), CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR), Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT) and Keppel DC REIT (KDC REIT) which are likely to benefit from interest cost savings as these REITs are either Singapore-focused or have a Singapore core. Sora is expected to stay low this year, the report indicates. In addition, these four REITs are liquid, have strong sponsors with good (sometimes the best) assets, and are backed by institutional investors.

Additional Singapore tailwinds include a stable property backdrop. CBRE says that Core CBD (Grade A) vacancy compressed to a record low of 3.3% in 1Q2026, down from 4.5% in 4Q2025. Islandwide vacancy fell to 5.1% in 1Q2026 from 5.6% in 4Q2025, with improvements recorded across Fringe CBD and Decentralised locations, CBRE Research says.

“The office market should remain landlord-favourable in 2026. The city-state’s structural advantages and historically strong post-correction recovery underpin confidence. We maintain our rental growth forecast for Core CBD (Grade A) buildings at approximately 5% y -o-y for full-year 2026,” CBRE Research says.

For retail, in 1Q2026, rental growth was recorded across all submarkets, with the City Hall/Marina Centre area leading the increase. Islandwide prime retail rents rose by 0.5% q-o-q. “A strong pipeline of MICE events and concerts — together with resilient consumer spending and Singapore’s safe haven status- are expected to support continued demand for prime retail space,” the CBRE Research report says. New supply over the next three years is likely to remain below historical averages, and prime retail rents could grow by 1 – 2% in 2026, the report adds.

For the REITs, JP Morgan reckons higher electricity costs are likely to be mitigated as most REITs have locked in electricity costs for 2026 and in some cases, up to five years. For REITs with triple net leases, costs are passed through. “If electricity costs rise 50% to 2023 peaks with no pass-through, we estimate only a 1–2% impact on DPU estimates,” JP Morgan calculates.

See also: Maybank maintains $5.25 target price on Singtel; capital management journey slightly 'delayed' not 'derailed'

For individual REITs, JPM suggests that trade-exposed REITs like Mapletree Logistics Trust (MLT) and Frasers Logistics and Commercial Trust (FLCT), which have fallen by 9% and 7.9% respectively year-to-date, should rebound once the Iran War stops and the Straits of Hormuz reopen.

Meanwhile, S-REITs are likely to start reporting their 1Q2026 results this week. Of these, most results will be business updates. Only FCT and FLCT will report 1HFY2026 results, while Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT), Mapletree Industrial Trust (MINT) and MLT will report FY2026 results this month.

JP Morgan is anticipating “modest low-single digit DPU growth” in FCT’s 1HFY2026, on the back of lower interest costs, together with the contribution from its Northpoint South Wing acquisition. However, FLCT is expected to report a mid-single digit 1HFY2026 DPU decline due to a reduction in capital top-ups.

See also: Sing Investments & Finance's resilient model warrants a 'buy' and $2.11 target price: Maybank Securities

MPACT’s North Asian properties are likely to remain weak, offset by strength in Singapore. This could result in a flat y-o-y DPU for FY2026, JP Morgan estimates.

Meanwhile, MLT’s FY2026 DPU should fall by 9-10% y-o-y “owing to the absence of capital top-ups with a drag from prior negative rental reversions in China. Investors will be focused on two key catalysts: the potential disposal of MLT's China assets into the Sponsor's China private fund, and the broader implications of the Iran conflict on tenant operations and leasing demand,” Song and Khi write.

MINT has significant overseas debt, which may limit the benefits of lower Sora at home. Furthermore, MINT is also at risk from its US data centre portfolio, which could see more vacancies. This, coupled with a weaker dollar and absence of capital top-ups could cause a 6% y-o-y decline in distributions per unit (DPU), JP Morgan estimates.

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