“It is a superior outcome compared to a typical Phase 2 out-licensing deal in which a partner captures the majority of upside. iX Biopharma retains full ownership and control over Wafermine. DoD removes the capital overhang and reduces the risk of Phase 3 execution,” Chew says.
Chew adds that other late-stage drugs that have received US DoD development funding include nerve agent countermeasures, bacterial infection treatments and virus vaccines. Meanwhile, he states that EUA will allow the immediate sale of Wafermine, estimated in 1QFY2027.
Meanwhile, Chew believes that the compounding pharmacy market will help iX Biopharma to monetise its nutraceuticals and other drugs.
“The compounding pharmacy market in the US is worth US$6 billion. Compounding pharmacies supply personalised drugs via telehealth platforms, clinics and hospitals,” Chew says.
From Chew’s perspective, he sees iX Biopharma’s WaferiX technology enables personalisation of drugs into a differentiated sublingual dosage, allowing more than 30 WaferiX drugs and nutraceuticals to be supplied without further FDA approvals.
“Partnership with Orion Speciality Labs provides a capital-light manufacturing and distribution route to the US, with NAD+ as the near-term revenue driver,” Chew states.
Apart from that, Chew sees potential in other products given that its Waferix sublingual drug delivery can deliver active ingredients to address a multitude of medical conditions or indications.
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“Some in the pipeline include erectile dysfunction, obesity, depression, allergy and vaccination. The more advanced pipeline assets are Wafermine for rare, prolonged pain (or CRPS) and Dexmedetomidine for acute agitation in dementia,” Chew adds.
As such, Chew is re-initiating coverage on iX Biopharma with a “buy” call and SOTP-derived target price of $1. Chew believes that iX Biopharma can monetise Wafermine through full commercialisation upon FDA approval (1QFY2029), out-licensing, or an outright sale of the drug.
“Until completion of Phase 3 trials, iX Biopharma will be enjoying three new sources of revenue through Wafermine EUA sales, DoD grant funding, and compound pharmacy in the US,” he states.
Chew has assigned a 40% discount to the underlying net present value of Wafermine and values the compound pharmacy at 20 times P/E ratio. He also discounted the remaining 30+ drugs, which are under various stages of development.
As at 9.18am, shares in iX Biopharma are trading 2 cents higher or 10% up at 22 cents.
