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No evidence of bubble yet, calls for property market cooling measures ‘premature’: DBS

Khairani Afifi Noordin
Khairani Afifi Noordin • 2 min read
No evidence of bubble yet, calls for property market cooling measures ‘premature’: DBS
Following the strong sales seen last month, new home sales for 2024 is estimated to come in between 7,500 to 7,800 units for the year. Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/The Edge Singapore
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DBS Group Research believes calls for new government cooling measures to tame the rise in property sales market sentiment are “premature” as overall new project sales in 2024 remain below historical average.

In fact, the impact of “cooling” through the introduction of heightened supply in the government land sales and government’s ramp up of building within the public housing space can already be seen, they add. 

This follows strong new home sales in Singapore, which hit a month high of 2,892 units, making November one of the strongest months for new home sales in recent years. This was bolstered by a number of notable property launches such as Chuan Park (79% sold), Emerald of Katong (99% sold), Nava Grove (69% sold). Executive condominiums such as Novo Place (57% sold) and Union Square (28% of the project sold) also contributed close to 80% of the transactions last month. 

The strong sales at Emerald of Katong also boosted volumes at nearby projects — The Continuum (16% of the project in the month sold) and Tembusu Grand (8% of the project sold). 

While the strong transaction volume in November was noteworthy and could support market sentiment, DBS notes that these numbers come after close to 10 months of transaction “drought”, where average monthly new sales was close to 440 units.

Following the strong sales seen last month, new home sales for 2024 is estimated to come in between 7,500 to 7,800 units for the year. This is at the lower end of historical sales momentum of about 8,000 to 9,000 in the past few years.

See also: CGSI initiates coverage on ISOTeam, expects FY2025 patmi to triple y-o-y

The analysts add that current in-place measures have removed the chance of “hot money” entering the property market. This is especially considering foreigner transactions — which historically takes up to 6% of overall yearly transactions, is now close to zero. 

“A majority of the buyers in the market are Singaporeans and permanent residences with upgraders a key driver for demand,” they note.

Looking ahead, with the improved earnings velocity, earnings for property agencies such as APAC Realty and PropNex could start to register a turnaround, while developers with “launches-in-waiting” such as City Developments and UOL could be looking to tap on the uptick in sentiment to capture sales in the coming months. 

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