“We broadly concurred with the short-term view, which along with low valuations led us to upgrade the stock in November 2025. Yet, we do not see asset quality issues fully cleared in 4Q2025, even if the quarter appears closer to business as usual. Accordingly, we expect negative consensus revisions in 2026 (JPM is 4% below Street), leading to a derating of the stock,” the JP Morgan report says.
The key risks stem from Hong Kong and US commercial real estate as well as continued high credit costs in Thailand based on guidance from large Thai banks in recent weeks. In addition, JP Morgan believes liquidity could be tight in Indonesia. The rupiah has fallen against the greenback for instance.
“Our pecking order in the industry now is DBS (overweight), OCBC (neutral), UOB (underweight),” JP Morgan says, with an end 2026 price target of $34.
