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CGSI slashes CDLHT’s target price by 18% to 87 cents on hospitality headwinds

Jovi Ho
Jovi Ho • 3 min read
CGSI slashes CDLHT’s target price by 18% to 87 cents on hospitality headwinds
W Hotel Sentosa, one of CDLHT's Singapore hotels. CDLHT’s gross revenue and NPI fell 2.8% and 14.2% y-o-y respectively in 1QFY2025 ended March 31. Photo: Samuel Isaac Chua/The Edge Singapore
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CGS International Research analysts Lock Mun Yee and Li Jialin have slashed their target price on CDL Hospitality Trusts(CDLHT) by more than 18% to 87 cents, citing headwinds for both its Singapore and overseas assets.

That said, Lock and Li are maintaining their "add" call on CDLHT in a May 2 note.

CDLHT reported gross revenue of $63.4 million for 1QFY2025, 2.8% lower y-o-y, due to lower revenue seen across all of its markets except for the UK and Japan. Net property income (NPI) fell by 14.2% y-o-y to $30 million with declines across CDLHT's geographies except for Japan and the UK.

CDLHT's Singapore portfolio saw its revenue per available room (RevPAR) fall 16% over 1QFY2025 ended March 31, led by lower occupancy and a falling average daily rate.

Singapore contributed some 60% of CDLHT's NPI in 1QFY2025. CDLHT owns six hotels across the island, along with Claymore Connect, a retail mall adjoining Orchard Hotel.

CDLHT's W Singapore began renovations in February, which is expected to be complete in end-2025. More broadly, CDLHT's management noted that net supply of Singapore hotels rose 6.3% since 2023.

See also: CDLHT’s 1QFY2025 NPI down by 14.2% to $30 mil; says Singapore hotels faced ‘challenging start’ from fewer events

These, coupled with a stronger Singapore dollar and normalisation in travel demand, were a drag on CDLHT's Singapore occupancy and RevPAR. CDLHT's management intends to secure more group bookings in place of transient travel demands.

Meanwhile, CDLHT's overseas markets are also facing headwinds. Its sole New Zealand hotel, for example, saw RevPAR slip 3.5% y-o-y in 1QFY2025, while NPI declined 24% y-o-y.

Management sees a brighter outlook for the New Zealand portfolio in FY2026, with the opening of the New Zealand International Convention Centre.

See also: Potential stake sale or takeover of HPL with Ong Beng Seng stepping down

CDLHT's two hotels in Perth, Australia saw higher RevPAR of 1.7% y-o-y in 1QFY2025, but NPI plummeted 53% y-o-y. This was due to the impact from final stages of room renovations and temporary one-month closure of the bar at Ibis Perth, which affected F&B revenue and overall operating performance.

CDLHT also reported higher operating expenses, including higher utility costs and the absence of payroll tax credit received in prior year, along with the depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Meanwhile, CDLHT's two Maldives resorts continued to see a downturn in RevPAR (down 10% y-o-y) and NPI (down 26% y-o-y) in 1QFY2025 with greater competition.

Management is also cautious on the outlook of Pullman Hotel Munich and Hotel Cerretani Firenze, as both might be impacted by ongoing tariff hikes, due to reliance on corporate demands and travellers from the US respectively.

Green shoots in UK, Japan

That said, CGSI notes "potential green shoots" in CDLHT's UK and Japan portfolio.

The UK hotel portfolio accounted for some 15% of CDLHT's NPI in 1QFY2025. Its UK RevPAR rose 1% and NPI rose 27% y-o-y on the Hotel Indigo Exeter, acquired in November 2024.

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CDLHT's four UK hotels also improved efficiency, operation or lease terms.

Meanwhile, CDLHT's Japan portfolio also saw positive growth in RevPAR (up 11.2% y-o-y) and NPI (up 5.3% y-o-y) in local currency.

CDLHT's gearing was at 41.8% as of March 31, with cost of debt down 10 basis points at 3.9%.

CDLHT has a "low" fixed rate borrowing of 34%, and 28% of its borrowings is due for refinancing in 2HFY2025, notes CGSI. "Management sees room for downward adjustment in average cost of debt for FY2025, if current interest rate cuts expectation materialises."

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