With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the Indo-Pacific faces an era of heightened unpredictability. The region must closely monitor the statements, decisions, and behaviours of President Trump and his administration to discern which pathway his leadership is likely to pursue.
Clarity on this direction is critical for shaping regional responses and strategies, especially during the first 100 days of his presidency. These early actions will provide crucial insights into his administration’s approach, enabling governments and businesses to mitigate risks and capitalise on opportunities.
This piece considers four potential pathways under the theme of “America First”: selective multilateralism focuses on ad-hoc coalitions aligned with American goals; transactional burden-sharing that compels allies to contribute more in return for US support; an intensified form of unilateralism where the US can impose its interests without consultation, and what I would call an “isolationist retrenchment” where the US withdraws from international affairs to shifts its focus from most international affairs to concentrate heavily on domestic priorities. These pathways span from the most cooperative to the least, reflecting the decreasing levels of US engagement and strategic leadership.
Selective multilateralism may emerge as a viable pathway, as evidenced by Trump’s support for coalitions like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) during his first presidential term from 2017 to 2020. Strengthening such arrangements allows the US to advance its interests through partnerships while sidestepping the full burden of multilateral commitments. However, this approach requires nations to align closely with US priorities, potentially limiting their strategic autonomy and complicating regional dynamics.
Transactional burden-sharing is another plausible scenario, given Trump’s history of demanding greater contributions from US allies. His insistence that allies “pay their fair share” for their defence was a consistent theme throughout his first term. His constant frustrations over defence arrangements, including suggestions that Japan and South Korea fully fund American troop deployments in their territories, may not just signal a shift towards placing a greater burden on allies but possibly even scaling back the US military altogether beyond its diplomatic outposts. This transactional approach could extend to trade agreements, possibly reshaping economic relationships in the Indo-Pacific while putting a strain on nations that may be unable to meet financial or strategic demands.
An intensified form of unilateralism would see the U.S. imposing its interests without consultation, disrupting global trade and diplomacy. Trump’s proposed universal tariff of up to 60% on Chinese goods, as well as significant tariffs on imports from other nations, exemplify this approach. His portrayal of countries like Vietnam and India as “trade abusers” and his appointment of hardline figures like Marco Rubio as the next secretary of state underscores a readiness to pressure both adversaries and allies alike unilaterally. Such actions could destabilise regional trade networks and force nations to recalibrate their strategies and seek alternative partnerships.
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The most concerning scenario, isolationist retrenchment, is a significant US retreat from international affairs to focus on domestic priorities. This pathway envisions a reduction in U.S. global commitments, leaving regional actors to navigate heightened tensions largely on their own. Such a move would create a power vacuum that China could potentially fill, inadvertently compelling smaller economies in Southeast Asia to rely more heavily on Beijing and further weakening the already delicate strategic balance within the Indo-Pacific region.
Each of these pathways presents distinct challenges and opportunities for the Indo-Pacific. Selective multilateralism offers a semblance of stability but requires careful alignment with US priorities. The scenario of transactional burden-sharing and intensified unilateralism, while disruptive and costly, still involves active US influence on key economic and security issues. Isolationist retrenchment, however, would leave the region to fend for itself, amplifying risks and uncertainties. It is also possible that the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency will reveal a combination of these pathways rather than a single clear undertaking as different aspects of his administration’s policies take shape.
Governments and businesses must remain vigilant and agile in their response to these scenarios. Strengthening regional alliances, diversifying economic relationships, and investing in local partnerships will be imperative to navigate uncertain global waters in the days ahead. For businesses, closely monitoring trade policies, exploring alternative supply chain sources to circumvent potential disruptions, and preparing contingency plans will help mitigate risks and uncover new opportunities. Equally important is the need for robust political intelligence monitoring and comprehensive risk analysis to anticipate policy shifts and align strategies with evolving geopolitical realities.
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Trump’s return to the White House represents a critical moment for the Indo-Pacific. Whether the US pursues selective multilateralism, transactional burden-sharing, intensified unilateralism, or isolationist retrenchment, the stakes are high. The choices made in Washington will shape the future of the region — and its global role — for years to come.
Dr Graham Ong-Webb is an adjunct fellow at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore. He is also with a global risk advisory consultancy
