Up till Jan 20, the United States of America, the most powerful military and economic might ever, was a force for democracy and human rights. For eight decades after winning World War Two, it supported multilateralism in climate, healthcare and global regulation — and ostensibly free trade. This is seemingly because the US has not confirmed judges on the World Trade Organization for several years already, leaving them unable to listen to any cases that China is taking to it on US tariffs.
Now, barely a month since his return, Donald Trump, together with his “bro” Elon Musk, in charge of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has stirred everything from reintroducing plastic straws to withdrawing from the World Health Organization to defunding USAID. By doing so, they have literally starved poor people, chopped off teams responsible for national parks and soldiers manning strategic defences. They have also undermined American soft power.
Worryingly, without Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, whose country is still thick in its three-year-long war with the bigger neighbour, Trump has made overtures to do a peace deal with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, sending Europeans scrambling to convene emergency security summits to secure their eastern flank. Or perhaps they also have to start securing the western flank, starting with Greenland, which Trump wants to buy — perhaps with investment returns from Gaza beach properties.
With the opening salvos of the trade war with friends like Canada, Australia, Europe and Japan, “Trumpflation” appears to be kicking in. Prices of eggs and consumer goods in America remain stubbornly high, as are energy and costs of construction. As a result, unemployment might go up, too, for apart from large swaths of federal employees getting laid off, small businesses will also start to feel the pinch from the tariffs. Unsurprisingly, US markets, including cryptocurrencies, have started easing, although not quite buckled as yet.
As the Cold War global sheriff, America has at least helped keep the former Soviets and their client states at bay. That benign security force for globalisation is now in a retreat — harking back to the isolationist policies of old Republicans a century ago. What has clearly emerged, to the dismay of many, was an aggressive alpha male all too ready to apply the laws of the jungle. Instead of standing up to dictators in Russia, China, Iran or North Korea, this incarnation of the US is more eager to flex its economic and military muscles to secure its own economic interests at the expense of allies and friends.
Shockingly, for the Europeans, they were lectured at the Munich Security Conference recently by Vice President James David Vance that their hate speech laws and attempts to control AI were “anti-democratic”. Less so was the act of trying to cut a deal with Russia — without their Nato allies or confused European friends — for invading Ukraine’s borders. Or, even more so, was Trump’s aversion to climate collaboration, global regulation and tax. The new American Way is less sustainable, where unfettered use of AI perpetuates a widening social divide and a dystopian future where global oligarchs rule.
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The image of Asia for the US, as described by Singapore’s Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen, has changed from “liberator to landlord seeking rent”. The US now sells more to Singapore than the other way around, but for most other countries where the trading volume veers the other way, they will not find it funny with reciprocal tariffs that presumptive US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick will roll out from April Fool’s Day onwards.
On a really serious note, if The Jungle Book is to be believed, it will be survival of the fittest as the global reorder takes shape and new political and trade alliances form across different geographical and economic blocs.
The circle of life
Chew On This is out in Africa’s savannahs for 10 days with a more defensive investing posture, as covered last week. Assuming that Trumpian policies will continue to confound and confuse global markets and that there will be a dearth of connectivity, it seemed sensible. Ironically, parts of Africa are well covered by Elon Musk’s Starlink, so I could catch up with his latest exploits, which include joining Trump in the Oval Office with his four-year-old boy X Æ A-Xii or Lil X.
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Indeed, the first couple of days in Meru National Park in Kenya was quite raw. We were treated to close encounters with six lions, which were chilling. A whiff of the apex predators amid the evening sun raised the alarm for a tower of 20 giraffes, herds of zebras, and antelope, who stood guard on alert, all looking in the same direction.
On their own, individual species band together, whether buffalos, impalas or zebras, as they are “prey”. In fact, when they graze, they form patterns with a lookout in all directions cleverly. Against a common predator, giraffes and zebras band together as well.
As survival of the fittest, it is inevitably the old limping buffaloes left behind, or the younglings, or those who venture out alone who are fair game. A giraffe’s skeletal carcass, taken down by lions next to a water hole, was a grim reminder. We also came across a small zebra foal in the pack with a huge glaring wound on her back — but lived to tell the tale. In that instance, she must have survived with her herd kicking into defence.
The predators do not always win. We saw an older eight-year-old lion roaming hungry in the morning with deep gashes on his shoulder and arm — something no doubt caused by the spirited defence of the prey when it was existential at that moment.
Yes, the unsuspecting impala is pounced upon by a leopard up on a tree. We were lucky enough to track a cheetah in the early evening, moving steadily towards an ambush of an impala. After a 25-second chase, she succeeded and then spent another five subduing it. Without strong teeth, she made her way through the tender bits first, eating as fast as possible as she continued panting from the hunt.
Within half an hour, an opportunistic hyena, following the whiff of the kill, joined the party and chased the cheetah off from her hard-earned meal. The hyena made much quick work of the impala, ripping it apart and crunching its bones with its powerful jaws. With the rest of the pack howling in the distance, we did not stay to wait for their arrival.
Investing lessons from the bush
Stick with the herd and follow the herd. But don’t be the last one in or right at the back. As the Western AI story has been punctured by DeepSeek, the Magnificent Seven US tech stocks have struggled to make new highs. Nvidia Corp and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp bros are losing their swagger. A tired buffalo, like a tired bull, is more likely to succumb to the next upstart, and so too are the tired markets.
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Other slow and steady herbivores, albeit pretty large ones like rhinos and hippos, are boring but reliable — much like how blue chips in Singapore have rewarded investors. One may be fast like the cheetah to spot and ride the momentum in more speculative stocks and markets, but if not careful, the opportunistic hyena will steal its dinner — much like striking the jackpot in an undervalued stock or REIT getting a buyout offer.
Realignments can happen on a dime. The forgotten market called China has revalued US$1.3 trillion ($1.7 trillion) as the Hang Seng Tech ETF and China and Hong Kong’s main stock indices break out of resistance levels on the charts.
Underweight Western investors have started to dip their toes in it — perhaps hoping that there will be a grand bargain between Trump and President Xi Jinping. After all, he seems willing to rehabilitate Russia and Putin. Being more risk-averse and taking profits quickly on the pop-ups in Chinese ETFs bought earlier on dips as part of our call this year, we have missed out on the revaluation. It might have more legs to run.
Apart from the promise of cheaper Chinese open-source AI models, there may be other reasons for this market to pick up. If America is becoming less reliable as a friend, then threats against the use of Chinese tech might work in Australia, but there is the global South, Asia and Asean who may all need to take insurance from just having one landlord who is increasing his rent. US withdrawal may just ironically give the new globalist China friendlier access to more markets. Instead of the long-gone International Herald Tribune, I picked up copies of the China Daily in the airport lounges of Johannesburg and Nairobi, showing an entirely opposite narrative from mainstream international English media.
There may be safety in numbers. As Tesla shares settle back down, given the global brand hit and declining sales in Europe and Asia from BYD competition, the next story Musk is selling it to tether Starlink and SpaceX in collaboration with Apple. But choose your friends carefully. The rumour that Apple will install it into iPhones has been debunked for now but started chatter of consumer boycotts. Maybe the American consumer will have to go to Korean or Chinese smartphones next if they are not “tariffed” and out of reach!
Re-light the fire
Finally, a note on the Singapore Exchange . Not the marketplace some of us love but the stock. Against the expectations of jaded sceptics, it has gained by a third in the six months since the capital markets review committee was convened. This is especially true after delivering a set of good growth numbers in derivatives commodities and forex, but this time, it includes higher traded value and the Straits Times Index breaking a new high.
Naturally, a pullback was due. The excuse was that some budget proposals for tax incentives for IPOs might be forthcoming, but tactical stock analysts promptly took this as the reason to downgrade the stock — following its good run — citing reasons such as this proposal was underwhelming expectations built in. The market wants more, especially as our mid and small-cap stocks continue to languish in low liquidity and valuations.
Perhaps they are right. In the new world paradigm, we, too, should take a leaf out of The Jungle Book and America First. We should not export all our domestic private and public savings and be capital providers to everyone else. Rather, some institutionalised processes and catalytic local funds ought to be funnelled regularly into our local markets: in other words, creating and stimulating demand is what’s needed. It is riskier than just supply-side measures. But instead of swaying in the savannah wind as it changes, let’s hope we rekindle the fire in our market.
Chew Sutat retired from the Singapore Exchange after 14 years as a member of its executive management team. During his watch, the exchange transformed from an Asian gateway into a global multi-asset exchange. He was awarded FOW’s Lifetime Achievement Award. He serves as chairman of the Community Chest Singapore
