(April 2) : US stocks rallied for a second day as hopes grew that the war in the Middle East may be nearing a conclusion, while Brent briefly fell below US$100 a barrel. Treasuries wavered and the dollar marked a second day of declines.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.7%, adding to gains from the previous session as investors assessed comments by President Donald Trump on the war’s trajectory. Trump said on Wednesday that Iran has asked for a ceasefire, adding that the US would only consider it if the Strait of Hormuz were reopened. Iran’s foreign ministry said the claim of a ceasefire request was “false and baseless,” according to state TV.
On Tuesday, Trump said he foresaw the US ending the conflict within two to three weeks, sparking a sharp rally in stocks. The US leader will hail his military campaign in Iran as a success during a Wednesday prime-time address and stress that the conclusion of operations may come within that time frame, according to a White House official.
“The violent recovery in the last two days could be either the smart money betting on de-escalation in the Middle East, or it could be a touch of desperation driving fear of missing out on a recovery,” said Michael Bailey, director of research at wealth management firm FBB Capital Partners. However, “any mixed or bad news at these higher levels could drive markets back down.”
The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 1.2%. Brent was down 2.8% at around US$101 per barrel. The two-year Treasury yield edged higher to 3.81% following solid data on the US labor market and retail sales.
“The sharp rally in stocks over the past 24 hours demonstrates how a resolution to the conflict, or hopes thereof, may quickly drive markets higher,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We continue to believe global stock markets will end the year higher than they are today.”
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US travel, mining and technology stocks rose, with Sandisk Corp. up around 9%. Miners including AngloGold Ashanti Plc and Newmont Corp. climbed as gold advanced for a fourth day. At the same time, Nike Inc. plunged more than 15% after a gloomy outlook, while energy shares were weaker.
Traders at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. suggested Tuesday’s sharp rebound in US stocks was more about the unwinding of negative positioning by market participants than a shift in sentiment over the war.
Some market participants are also wary of a late-week selloff in US stocks, a pattern that has taken hold since the start of the Iran war.
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Meanwhile, investors said it would take time for oil flows to return to normal even if the war ends within Trump’s timeframe, especially given the damage to some energy facilities. Trump’s team has also suggested that reopening the Hormuz strait, which carries 20% of global crude, may not be necessary to end the hostilities.
“Each passing week increases the global economic costs of the Iran conflict,” wrote Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pacific Investment Management Co. At some point, “the economic effects of persistent disruptions will start to build, with recessionary implications for the global economy.”
uploaded by Isabelle Francis
