(Nov 7): US consumer sentiment fell to a more than three-year low as the government shutdown weighed on the economic outlook and high prices soured views about personal finances.
The preliminary November sentiment index dropped to 50.3, the lowest since June 2022, from 53.6 in the prior month, according to the University of Michigan. That was weaker than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
A measure of current economic conditions slumped 6.3 points to a record low of 52.3 as anxiety mounted about the impact from the government shutdown. The drop in overall sentiment was broad across age, income and political groups, the report showed.
While spontaneous mentions of high prices increased for a fifth month, inflation expectations eased over the longer term. Consumers saw costs rising at an annual rate of 3.6% over the next five to 10 years, a three-month low. Price expectations for the next year edged up, the data issued Friday showed.
“Consumers perceive pressure on their personal finances from multiple directions,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement. “Consumers also anticipate that labour markets will continue to weaken in the future and expect to be personally affected.”
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A measure of current personal finances declined to a six-year low, while buying conditions for big-ticket goods were considered the worst since mid-2022.
Fears about unemployment jumped this month, with 71% of respondents expecting it to rise in the year ahead, more than double the year-ago share.
“Moreover, consumers’ expectations over their own probability of job loss worsened this month, reaching the highest reading since March 2025,” Hsu said.
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On Wednesday, ADP Research Institute reported that private-sector payrolls rose by 42,000 in October, the first increase in three months. The modest pace of hiring, alongside a series of high-profile layoff announcements from major companies, helps explain why consumers remain pessimistic about the labour market.
The expectations index slid to a six-month low of 49. The longest government shutdown in US history is obscuring the view of the economy as key federal data are delayed. Private-sector sources, including the university’s sentiment survey, provide a partial substitute amid the blackout.
The November survey was conducted from Oct 21 to Nov 3.
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