“The composition of gross domestic product (GDP) growth will look different from last cycle in the years ahead,” wrote David Mericle, Goldman’s chief US economist. “More will come from productivity growth, which has rebounded and should receive a boost from artificial intelligence (AI), and less will come from labour supply growth with immigration now much lower.”
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in mid-December expected US growth of 2% in 2026 — the same as their forecast for 2025. US President Donald Trump’s tax-cuts package is seen sustaining America’s streak of outperformance of its developed-world peers.
Goldman’s forecasts are more bullish:
- A GDP growth rate of 2.5% in 2026 (on a fourth-quarter-on-fourth-quarter basis) or 2.8% on a full-year basis.
- Core personal consumptions expenditures inflation of 2.1% year-on-year by December, with the core consumer price index slowing to 2%.
- The baseline sees the unemployment rate stabilising at 4.5%, but there’s a risk of a period of jobless growth as companies look to use AI to reduce labour costs.
See also: US core CPI rises as expected in January on services costs
On trade, Goldman assumes the upcoming mid-term elections will see cost-of-living issues emerge as a major political theme, leading the White House to avoid any significant further tariff increases.
Consumer spending should grow steadily, supported by tax cuts and real wage gains. Business investment will be the strongest component of GDP in 2026, benefiting from easier financial conditions, reduced policy uncertainty and tax incentives, Mericle wrote.
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