Caught in that bind, Fed Chair Jerome Powell may have been comforted by government data on Friday showing a healthy 177,000 jump in April payrolls. As long as the labour market holds firm, the Fed can more easily justify standing pat.
Meanwhile, the Fed's favored inflation gauge showed price pressures continued to slowly ease. While Powell & Co. would typically welcome such a cooling, higher US duties on imports risk upending the progress they've made on inflation.
Indeed, uncertainty is the dominant factor now for major central banks around the world. The White House is pursuing deals on the tariff front that could once again shift the landscape, a nightmare for anyone trying to forecast future economic conditions.
See also: US immigration curbs to hit economy hard in 2025, Fed study says
The European Central Bank has continued to cut rates in anticipation of continued disinflation and weaker growth caused by US tariffs. But euro-area inflation unexpectedly held steady in a report released on Friday, while an underlying measure jumped.
Another illustration of the fog of the trade war: The Bank of Canada in April abandoned its usual practice of releasing a base-case forecast. Instead, it issued two potential - and very different - scenarios that hinge on how Canada's tariff dispute with the US turns out.
The US economic data calendar is light in the coming week. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management issues its April services index. Economists will then focus on jobless claims data for any signs layoffs are becoming more pronounced. Initial applications in the week ended April 26 jumped to the highest since February, largely due to a spring recess-related surge in New York filings.
See also: Cautionary signals emerge in latest US jobs report
In Canada, newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney is set to meet Trump within the week, and will also start assembling a cabinet.
Jobs data may show continued weakness, merchandise trade numbers for March will reflect tariffs, and the Bank of Canada's financial stability report will offer insight into the capacity of businesses and households to weather a potential recession.
Elsewhere, several monetary decisions are scheduled, with rate cuts anticipated in the UK and Poland, a hike in Brazil, and no change in Sweden and Norway.
Asia will see data on factory or services activity from a number of countries, including China, Japan, Singapore and India, providing early insight into the impact of Trump's tariffs.
The week kicks off with Pakistan's rate decision as tensions with neighboring India escalate.
On the same day, Singapore publishes retail sales for March, while figures from Indonesia will likely show the economy there contracted in the first quarter.
The following day, China publishes the Caixin activity report for April at a time when measures across Asia are showing a sudden worsening because of Trump's trade war. Vietnam has a flurry of data on tap, from inflation to trade and retail sales, while Australia - where elections on Saturday saw the incumbent center-left Labour Party returned to power with an increased majority - reports building approvals.
Charts: Bloomberg
