In comparison, data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore Survey of Professional Forecasters (MAS SPF) released last December found that the median forecast of the consumer price index (CPI)-all Items inflation for 2023 was 4.8%, while the MAS’ core inflation median forecast was 4.1%.
SInDEx is conducted by economists from the Singapore Management University (SMU), and partnered by DBS Group Research, and surveys around 500 individuals representing a cross section of Singaporean households. It is now in its 50th edition.
The latest CPI data release from the Department of Statistics showed that CPI-all Items rose by 4.9% between January and November 2023, compared to the same period in 2022, with the latest November 2023 monthly inflation print coming in at 3.6% y-o-y.
The survey’s overall CPI expectations (CPIEx) declined to 4.76% in December from 5% in September. Expectations of major components of CPI such as food, transportation, housing and utilities, healthcare and miscellaneous goods and services stayed unchanged.
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Meanwhile, expectations of all other components such as education, recreation and culture, clothing and footwear, among others, declined.
Overall, it found that Singapore consumers expect a slight negative impact on the country’s economic growth for the upcoming year. This can be attributed to uncertainties stemming from geo-political conflicts and strategic tensions, global growth prospects and consequently continuation of policy tightening – albeit at a measured pace – of monetary policies by major economies, a tight domestic job market and general cost-of-living pressures.
Singaporean consumers also opined that over the next 12 months, their overall expenses are expected to increase slightly, the survey finds.
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Creator and founding principal investigator of the quarterly survey, Dr Aurobindo Ghosh says: “In Singapore domestically, the moderation in expectations might have been slightly dampened by the 1% increase in goods and services tax (GST) in 2024, although Singaporeans opined that a slowdown in global growth might also limit any significant increase in overall price levels. The overall and component-wise inflation expectations of Singaporean consumers have largely declined, even after accommodating behavioural biases, indicating some levels of anchoring of medium-and long-term inflation expectations.”
For the longer horizon, the five-year-ahead CPIEx inflation expectations declined slightly to 4.8% in December 2023 from 4.9% in the September 2023 survey, says Ghosh. The current polled number continues to be higher than the first quarter average of 4% polled since the survey’s inception in September 2011 up till 2022, he adds.
