A June forecast survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) garnered an overall sentiment from 20 respondents that Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to expand by 1.7% this year, falling below the previous survey estimate of 2.6%. The survey was sent out to 25 economists and analysts on May 22.
The more bearish expectation comes off the back of a broad-based lowering of estimates across the board, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
On a median forecast basis, the survey respondents see that GDP growth for 2026 could come in at 1.7%.
Their forecasts of the most probable outcome for growth are in the 1.5% to 1.9% range, with an average probability of 31%.
In the previous March survey, they assigned the highest probability to growth outturns of between 2.0% to 2.4%
See also: Economists raise 2025 GDP forecast following 2Q flash estimate but stay wary on 2H
The standard deviation of the forecasts has increased compared to the previous survey, and the distribution has turned positively skewed.
On a quarterly basis, Singapore’s economic growth exceeded expectations in the 1Q2025, expanding by 3.9% y-o-y, slightly beating the respondents’ median forecast of 3.8% in the previous survey.
With this, respondents presently expect the economy to grow by 3.0% y-o-y in the second quarter.
See also: Singapore's economy expands by 4.3% in 2Q, extending growth thus far this year
Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) on all items and MAS core inflation came in at 1.0% and 0.6% y-o-y in the 1Q2025, respectively, lower than the respondents’ forecasts in the previous survey.
In the current survey, they expect CPI-all Items and MAS core inflation to arrive at 0.9% and 0.7% respectively for the second quarter.
The current median forecast for CPI-all items inflation for 2025 is 0.9%, down from 1.7% in the March survey, while the latest median forecast for MAS core inflation is 0.8%, also lower than 1.5% in the previous survey.
As for the labour market, the respondents expect the unemployment rate to be 2.2% at year-end, up slightly from their previous forecast of 2.0%.
On the end of risks to Singapore’s economic growth, geopolitical tensions, including from the escalation in trade tensions, have been flagged out as the biggest worry of respondents, while other concerns include external slowdown and tighter financial conditions.
Should trade tensions ease or become milder-than-expected, 88% of respondents see an upside.
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Respondents also point to better-than-expected growth outlook in the external economies and sustained tech cycle upturn as key upside risks.
Finally, with regards to monetary policy, slightly more than half of the 20 respondents anticipate further easing in the July policy review, largely via a flattening of the slope of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band.
This is an increase from the previous March survey.
As for the October policy review later in the year, 17.6% of the respondents expect a reduction or flattening of the policy band, while 11.8% expect a downward re-centring of the band.
