(March 31): Oil fluctuated at the close of its strongest ever monthly rally in London, buffeted by ongoing attacks in the Persian Gulf and signs of US President Donald Trump contemplating an exit from the Iran conflict.
Brent futures for May delivery traded near US$118 ($151.93) a barrel, headed for a record surge of more than 60% in March as the US-Israeli campaign against Iran triggered the most severe energy supply shock in history. With May futures expiring on Tuesday, the more widely-traded June contract was little changed below US$108 a barrel.
Trump scolded allies struggling to obtain jet fuel that normally flows through the strait to just “take it”, arguing in a social media post that the US had already weakened Iran enough.
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier that Trump told aides he’s willing to end the military campaign even if the strait remains closed, after his administration assessed that reopening the corridor would take too long. The president resolved that the US should instead focus on crippling Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles, then wind down current hostilities.
Prices initially soared on Tuesday as Iran struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in a drone attack, but the gains subsequently cooled. The Al-Salmi, a fully-laden very large crude carrier, was hit in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port with the hull sustaining damage. Tehran has regularly targeted ships across the Gulf since the war began, previously attacking two vessels near Iraq.
“I think we are closer to an offramp exit scenario than a lot of people actually assume,” Christoph Eibl, the chief executive officer and a co-founder of commodities trader Tiberius Group, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “There is a chance for a quick, go-in, make noise, blow up something” operation by the US while it tries “to find a way to exit” the conflict quickly.
See also: First LNG ship to attempt Strait of Hormuz exit not carrying cargo — data
The war, now in its fifth week, has effectively closed Hormuz, choking off supplies of crude, natural gas and products such as diesel to global markets, which has led to skyrocketing energy prices and concerns about inflation.
Trump has regularly swung between saying an end to the war is near and warning that he’s prepared to ramp up military operations. On Monday, he said that the US will blow up power plants, oil facilities and “possibly” desalination infrastructure if Iran doesn’t reopen Hormuz.
US crude is up more than 50% this month, the most since May 2020, and the market remains on edge about the build-up of US troops in the region and a possible ground deployment in Iran.
See also: China tells private refiners to keep up fuel output at all costs — Bloomberg
Hostilities continued on Tuesday with Israel Defense Forces completing another wave of strikes on Iranian regime targets in Tehran, while Saudi Arabia intercepted and destroyed drones. Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency reported as US-Israeli strike on Bahman Port in the east of Qeshm Island.
Over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Israel with missiles. Tehran is pushing the militants to prepare for a renewed campaign against Red Sea shipping, which could threaten oil supplies from alternative routes outside Hormuz, such as Saudi Arabian shipments from its Yanbu port.
“The tone remains one step forward, five steps back on any off-ramp,” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group. “With 10 to 12 million barrels per day still effectively missing from the market, buffers are fading and talking crude lower is becoming less effective.”
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