(April 24): The global natural gas market is set to remain tight well beyond this year, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and damage to regional infrastructure continue to disrupt supply, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In a report published Friday, the IEA said the war has delayed a long-anticipated glut in liquefied natural gas, even as new capacity comes online. The impact of that expansion — driven largely by the US — is being pushed back “by at least two years”.
The outlook aligns with a warning from Vitol Group earlier this week, which said global supply could be impacted through 2028. The energy trader cited last month’s damage to LNG facilities in Qatar and delays to new projects across the Middle East.
Now in its second month, the conflict shows no signs of easing, effectively choking off around a fifth of global oil and LNG supply. Qatar has said Iranian strikes last month damaged about 17% of its liquefaction capacity, with repairs potentially taking as long as five years.
The combined impact of near-term supply losses and slower capacity growth could result in a cumulative shortfall of around 120 billion cubic meters of LNG between 2026 and 2030, the IEA said. This estimate includes delays to Qatar’s North Field East expansion project.
For now, demand has softened in key importing markets in response to higher prices, milder weather, and policy efforts to curb consumption. Several Asian countries are turning to fuel switching and demand-side measures to limit gas use amid the supply crunch.
See also: Oil rises for fifth day as Trump rhetoric seen hindering Iran talks
“Demand response will be key to balancing the global gas market,” the IEA said.
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